BB Prints a New High as the Target Hikes Outvote the Soft Guide

The Fade Reversed

Twenty-four hours ago BB was the post-earnings cooldown trade — it had tagged a record near $10.93 on a clean fiscal-Q1 beat and was drifting back into the high $9s as a soft forward guide gave the run something to chew on. That dip got bought. BB is now around $11.51, up 16.99% over the last 24 hours and printing a fresh high above the level that capped it a day earlier.

The underlying tape backs the move: BlackBerry has run roughly 30% in two sessions, from an $8.62 close on June 24 to north of $11, adding close to $1 billion in market cap on the Q1 reaction alone. The Hyperliquid perp turned over about $16.2 million in the same window. The soft-guide worry didn't disappear — the market just decided it wasn't the part of the story that mattered this week.

Wall Street Repriced It

What actually overran the fade was the sell-side. After the Q1 print the target hikes came in a cluster, and several were not small: CIBC's Todd Coupland lifted his Outperformer target to $13 from $10, and Canaccord's Michael Walkley took his to $10.30 from $8.20 while staying on the sidelines with a Hold.

The louder tell is the laggards capitulating. Raymond James doubled its target to $9.50 from $4.75, and RBC roughly doubled to $9 from $4.50 — both still rated below Buy, but both forced to concede the numbers had moved past their models. That comes on top of Stifel's Buy call and $12 target ahead of the print. When the bears are raising targets 100% and the most bullish desk just went to $13, the path of least resistance is up.

QNX Is the Re-Rate Engine

The number doing the heavy lifting is QNX. The auto and embedded unit posted $72.3 million in revenue, up 26%, at an 86% adjusted gross margin, and management is sitting on a royalty backlog near $1 billion — high-margin revenue already contracted into design wins. That backlog is what lets the desk reframe BlackBerry from a security turnaround into a software-defined-vehicle and "physical AI" play, the same thematic bucket the market is paying up for everywhere else.

The rest of the print fed the re-rate rather than fighting it: revenue of $152.9 million, up 26%, with non-GAAP EPS doubling the Street, the first cash-positive fiscal Q1 in nine years on $46.1 million of operating cash flow, and a full-year revenue guide raised to $594–621 million. The soft Q2 range is still buried in that outlook; it just got out-shouted by the backlog.

Where It Gets Expensive

The catch is the same one from a day ago, only sharper now that BB has made a new high. Even after the wave of hikes, the stock trades above nearly every target on the board — CIBC's $13 is one of the few numbers left sitting above the tape. On fundamentals that means a P/E north of 60 and a price-to-sales multiple that, on the updated full-year midpoint, lands around 10x, against a stock already up roughly 130% year to date.

RBC said the quiet part out loud even while raising its target: the shares trade ahead of fundamentals. None of that has to bite while the re-rate momentum holds and the AI/SDV bid is live, but it defines the air pocket. The same thin-volume continuation that carried BB to a new high is what makes the give-back fast if the next data point — a Q2 that actually prints inside that soft guide — lands without a fresh catalyst to absorb it.