Brent Extends Near $98 as CENTCOM Narrows Hormuz Blockade to Iranian Ports

The Blockade Goes Operational

Hours after Trump declared on Truth Social that the Navy would "BLOCKADE any and all Ships" entering or leaving the Strait, CENTCOM narrowed the scope significantly. The command will enforce the blockade against all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports — including those on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman — but will not impede ships transiting to and from non-Iranian ports.

The distinction matters. Trump's rhetoric threatened a total closure of one of the world's most critical waterways. CENTCOM's implementation targets Iranian trade specifically, leaving a lane open for Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari, and UAE exports that still need to exit the Gulf. Enforcement begins Monday at 10 a.m. ET under a presidential proclamation.

The blockade follows the collapse of US-Iran talks in Islamabad. VP JD Vance announced the failure after a day of negotiations. Trump's post-mortem was blunt: "the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not."

A Strait Running Dry

The physical reality at Hormuz is already extreme. Only two ships transited the strait on Friday, neither of them oil or gas tankers — down from hundreds per day before the war. Fewer than 10 ships have been crossing daily since February 28. Inside the Gulf, 230 loaded oil tankers sit waiting, according to ADNOC's CEO.

JPMorgan analysts flagged a hard deadline: the last tanker to clear Hormuz on February 28 is expected to reach its destination around April 20, "marking the point at which pre-closure barrels are fully exhausted from the global supply chain." That's eight days away.

The supply picture is compounding. Saudi Arabia confirmed that attacks on its energy infrastructure have cut production capacity by 600,000 barrels per day and reduced East-West pipeline throughput by approximately 700,000 bpd. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has called the crisis "more serious than 1973, 1979, and 2002 together."

Gambit or Escalation

Wall Street is split on what the blockade actually means. Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad called it "more like a negotiating gambit to reset the bargaining terms of Strait of Hormuz access than a durable blockade." US crude futures jumped 8% to over $104 on the announcement, Brent futures rose 7% to $103, while equities sold off — S&P 500 futures dropped 1% and Dow futures fell more than 500 points.

But even if the blockade is leverage rather than endgame, the physical supply clock is ticking. Gas prices have already risen $1.20 per gallon since the war began, averaging $4.12 nationally. The UK has declined to assist with enforcement, citing "freedom of navigation" concerns — leaving the US to implement unilaterally. Monday morning will test whether CENTCOM's narrower scope holds or whether the world's most critical chokepoint produces another escalation.

Trading on Hyperliquid

Trade BRENTOIL on Hyperliquid with up to 20x leverage.