A Deleted Tweet From the Energy Secretary Just Unwound Brent's War Premium

The Deleted Post That Moved Markets

On March 10, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X that the "U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets." Brent crude dropped 15–17% within hours, falling below $80 per barrel — its sharpest single-session move since the Iran war began on February 28.

The post was deleted shortly after. The Energy Department has not clarified whether the escort actually happened or what the Navy's specific role was. NBC News reported that the market moved on the post before anyone could verify the claim. The selloff held even after the deletion.

Equities read the move as a supply-relief signal. The S&P 500 jumped 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose 0.9%, and the Dow gained 450 points on optimism that energy constraints might ease.

Two Weeks of War Premium

The premium that evaporated on March 10 took two weeks to build. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury — coordinated strikes on Iranian military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Israeli cities and U.S. bases across the Gulf.

By March 2, the IRGC officially declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, threatening any vessel that attempted transit. Tanker traffic dropped to near zero. The strait normally carries over 20% of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels per day.

The supply shock cascaded quickly. Kuwait cut production and declared force majeure alongside Iraq, both countries losing their export routes through the Gulf. Iran attacked refineries and LNG facilities across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Brent, which had been trading in the mid-$60s before the strikes, surged past $100 when markets opened on March 9 and briefly touched $119.50.

The move from $65 to $120 in ten days was one of the fastest war premiums in crude oil history.

Bombs Didn't Matter — Tankers Did

What makes the March 10 selloff striking is what it ignored. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the same day would see America's "most intense day of strikes inside Iran." The market shrugged. Traders had already priced in military escalation — what they hadn't priced in was a path for oil to flow again.

JPMorgan Chase analysts noted that no policy measure would be effective unless safe passage through the strait was guaranteed. Wright's post — however briefly it existed — was the first signal from the administration that safe passage might be achievable. That was enough to trigger a repricing.

Even after the selloff, Brent at $83.78 remains roughly 25% above pre-war levels. The strait is not meaningfully reopened. Kuwait and Iraq have not restored production. The IEA is holding an extraordinary meeting to discuss strategic petroleum reserve releases, with member states holding 1.2 billion barrels in reserve. G7 energy ministers met but stopped short of announcing SPR releases, instead asking the IEA to assess deployment options.

The deleted post relieved the panic premium. The structural premium — a closed strait, offline production, and damaged infrastructure — is still very much in play.

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