WTI Holds Above $110 as UN Delays Hormuz Force Vote

The Diplomatic Stall

The UN Security Council was set to vote Friday on a Bahrain-backed resolution authorizing "all defensive means necessary" to secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The vote was delayed for Good Friday, and the proposal itself had already been significantly watered down — stripped of offensive force authorization after opposition from China, Russia, and France. Beijing's UN envoy Fu Cong argued the resolution would amount to "legitimizing the unlawful and indiscriminate use of force."

Even if the diluted resolution eventually passes, it authorizes defensive action only — not the kind of offensive naval operation that would actually break Iran's chokehold on the strait. The market read the delay and the diplomatic resistance correctly: there is no multilateral solution coming this week, and probably not next week either.

An Output Hike With Nowhere to Go

OPEC+ meets Saturday to decide on a planned 206,000 barrel-per-day output increase for May. On paper, that's incremental supply. In practice, it's almost irrelevant. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil trade during peacetime, and tanker traffic through the waterway has dropped to effectively zero since Iran tightened its blockade. Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, and Emirati crude that would normally transit the strait has nowhere to go.

The meeting is more about signaling than barrels. If OPEC+ proceeds with the hike, it signals confidence that demand will absorb the disruption. If it reverses, that's an implicit admission the supply picture is worse than priced. Either way, 206k b/d is a rounding error against the 4.5–5 million barrels per day the world has already lost.

Bearish Data, Unbreakable Bid

The EIA reported a 5.5-million-barrel build in US crude inventories for the week ended March 27 — the largest weekly build in months and a classically bearish signal. The market shrugged it off entirely. WTI didn't flinch.

That tells you where sentiment sits. Domestic inventory builds don't matter when the market is pricing in a prolonged Gulf supply disruption with no diplomatic off-ramp. Near-term crude futures are trading at record premiums over later contracts, a backwardation structure that reflects persistent physical tightness. US gasoline hit $4.08 per gallon — up 36% in a month — and the inflationary pass-through is only beginning.

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