CoreWeave Bleeds Another 8% as Post-Earnings Selloff Deepens on Capex and Margin Fears

What Happened

This isn't a fresh shock — it's the continuation of a brutal unwind that started on February 26 when CoreWeave reported Q4 2025 earnings. The stock dropped nearly 19% that session alone and has barely caught a bid since. Roughly $13 billion in market cap has evaporated in under a week, dragging CoreWeave's valuation down to around $38 billion.

The broader AI infrastructure trade has been under pressure, but CRWV has been a standout underperformer. While other GPU-levered names have bounced off post-earnings lows, CoreWeave keeps making new ones. Volume on the Hyperliquid perp hit nearly $2 million in 24 hours — not massive, but enough to suggest traders are actively pressing the short side.

On Tuesday, March 3, the stock fell another 5.5% to $73.78, trading as low as $70.37 intraday. There's been no meaningful bounce, and the drip-lower price action suggests sellers aren't done.

Why It Moved

The root cause is the February 26 Q4 earnings report, but the damage has compounded as the market fully prices in what CoreWeave revealed.

The earnings miss was ugly. Q4 revenue came in at $1.57 billion — up 110% year-over-year and technically a beat — but that's where the good news ended. The net loss ballooned to $452 million, or ($0.89) per share, missing consensus of ($0.61) by $0.28. Operating expenses hit $1.7 billion in a single quarter.

Q1 guidance was the real gut punch. Management guided Q1 2026 revenue to $1.9–$2.0 billion, well below the $2.29 billion consensus. For a company whose entire bull case rests on hypergrowth, guiding 13–17% below Street expectations is a serious credibility hit.

Then there's the capex bomb. CoreWeave disclosed plans to spend $30–$35 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 — roughly double 2025 levels. That works out to about $2.60 in capex for every $1 of projected revenue, a ratio that made even the most bullish analysts blink. CEO Mike Intrator defended it, saying margins reflect "the cost of building tomorrow's revenues," but the market isn't buying the patience narrative right now. Total debt sits at $21 billion and projected Q1 2026 interest expenses alone are $510–$590 million.

Analysts have been cutting. Citi lowered its price target from $135 to $126 and slashed its 2026 EPS estimate from $0.75 to ($2.97). Barclays cut from $120 to $90, and Mizuho trimmed from $100 to $95. The consensus target of ~$124 still implies massive upside, but the downward revisions are accelerating.

Adding to the overhang: a securities fraud class action with a lead plaintiff deadline of March 13, just eight days away. The suit alleges CoreWeave concealed construction delays at data centers — including a key facility in Denton, Texas built for OpenAI — and overstated its scaling capabilities.

What to Watch

The $70 level is the immediate line in the sand — CRWV briefly tagged $70.37 on March 3 and bounced, but barely. A clean break below $70 opens air down to the mid-$60s, roughly where the stock sat in the weeks after its March 2025 IPO.

The March 13 lead plaintiff deadline in the securities fraud case is a near-term catalyst. Depending on who emerges as lead plaintiff and the scope of claims, this could either clear an uncertainty overhang or intensify it.

CorWeave has an investor presentation scheduled for March 2026 — any updated guidance or capex details there could move the stock sharply in either direction.

The $66.8 billion contracted backlog is the bull case anchor. Management says every contract in that backlog begins generating revenue by year-end 2026. If Q2 guidance comes in stronger, the narrative could flip fast. But until then, the market is pricing CoreWeave like a company spending its way into a hole.

Trading on Hyperliquid

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