MINIMAX Catches Zhipu's Lock-Up Relief Bid — Its Own Test Is Next

The Bid Belongs to Zhipu, Not MiniMax

MINIMAX moved up 18.88% over 15 hours to $45.88, and almost none of that is a MiniMax story. The catalyst sits one ticker over. Rival Chinese LLM lab Zhipu AI cleared its first major post-IPO lock-up this week and gained roughly 18-19% as the feared flood of supply was smoothly absorbed after several cornerstone investors reaffirmed their holding commitments. That took the tail risk off the whole cohort, and the confidence spilled onto MiniMax, whose Hong Kong line added about 2.7%. On a thin HIP-3 perp — roughly $3.65M of 24h volume at up to 10x — a 2.7% cash move becomes an 18.88% print. The perp isn't leading here; it's amplifying someone else's relief.

This Retraces a Flush, Not a Fundamental

Read the bounce against where the stock came from. On July 2, MiniMax dropped nearly 15% to a multi-month low, closing near HK$356.8 — levels last seen on January 12, its second day of trading — and kept sliding toward HK$336 by July 6. That sell-off was pure lock-up front-running: nobody wanted to hold into the supply, so the shares got flushed ahead of the event. The 18.88% perp move mechanically retraces that flush now that the event risk looks manageable. Nothing about the business changed between the July 2 low and today — no earnings, no product, no new capital — this is positioning unwinding, not a re-rating. And the backdrop is heavy: Goldman pegs roughly $274 billion of Hong Kong lock-ups freeing over the next 12 months, with post-expiry names historically bleeding about 4% over three months. Relief bounces into that tape tend to be rentals, not homes.

MiniMax's Own Cliff Hasn't Hit Yet

Here is why buying this move is buying Zhipu's good news a day early: MiniMax's own cornerstone lock-up is still ahead. This week the company frees roughly 107 million shares — about 34.25% of total stock, near HK$40 billion, with some tallies putting the full freeing closer to 45-48% of issued shares, and it lands on a name whose tradable free float today is under 6%. That doesn't nudge supply, it multiplies it several times over, dropping fresh stock onto pre-IPO holders sitting on enormous gains — MiniMax doubled on its January debut and ran far higher before the March correction. Zhipu's cornerstones showed discipline; whether MiniMax's do the same is the entire trade. The clean tell is the first sessions after MiniMax's stock actually hits the tape: hold a bid through its own unlock the way Zhipu did and the overhang is finally spent; if the reaffirmations don't come, this bounce was just a better exit.