Palantir Rebounds off $106 Low on NVIDIA Sovereign-AI Deal as Burry Covers Half His Short

The NVIDIA Deal Is the Headline, Not the Whole Move

The proximate catalyst is real. On June 29, Palantir launched an engine for deploying NVIDIA's Nemotron open models inside sovereign, air-gapped environments aimed at U.S. government agencies and critical infrastructure, pairing Palantir's AIP, Foundry, Ontology and Apollo with NVIDIA compute and open models. Alex Karp framed it as letting the U.S. government "unleash the full power of LLMs while removing the underlying security risks". Days earlier, the Army had named Palantir Foundry the cloud data layer for its top-priority Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) program as it moves from prototype toward broad deployment, with Anduril's Lattice serving as the tactical layer.

Both are genuine wins for the government-AI thesis. The catch is scale: the single-day reaction to the NVIDIA news was only about 4%, which is not what a 10%-plus 24-hour move looks like on news alone. Something else was doing the heavy lifting.

Who Was Actually Buying

The bigger tell is positioning. PLTR printed a fresh 52-week low of $106.37 late in the prior week before bouncing, and the reversal lined up almost exactly with a shift from its most famous bear. Michael Burry disclosed he had covered half his Palantir short at $107.15 on June 25 — right at the lows — though he still holds June 2027 $50-strike puts, so he trimmed the size, not the thesis.

On the other side, Cathie Wood's ARK kept accumulating into the drawdown, adding roughly 81,254 shares (~$9.7M) on June 23 and another 41,601 shares (~$4.5M) on June 26. A Trump financial disclosure showing a fresh $100,001-plus purchase added a political tailwind. Strip it down and a large share of this move is a short-heavy, oversold name unwinding at the exact level where the most-watched bear stepped back.

The Bear Case Didn't Go Anywhere

None of this fixes the valuation. Even after the bounce, PLTR sits near $126.90 — still roughly 40% below its November 2025 high of $207.52. The business itself is not the problem: Q1 2026 revenue landed at $1.63B, up 85% year over year with gross margins in the mid-80s. The multiple has always been the argument, and it still is.

When HIPERWIRE last covered PLTR in April, the story was Burry's "Anthropic is eating Palantir's lunch" broadside and a war premium unwinding into a ceasefire. The single most interesting change in the setup now is that the same bear is trimming rather than pressing that short. What this bounce hasn't done is answer whether the government-AI backlog can grow into the price — the NVIDIA and NGC2 wins are backlog, not revenue yet. Until that converts, a 10% up-day off a washed-out low reads as positioning, not vindication.