RKLB Adds 19.83% as Neutron Separation Test Clears and Cowen Tags $120 PT

The Neutron Test That Mattered

Over the weekend Rocket Lab announced that Neutron cleared a full-flight-load stage separation test campaign on the second stage development article and interstage hardware — one of the trickier engineering checkpoints in a reusable medium-lift design. Peter Beck flagged successful separation events at full flight loads, with the campaign now moving into off-nominal cases. The market is reading this as one of the last big de-risking gates before Neutron's late-2026 debut window, which the company explicitly reiterated on the May 7 call despite the prior slip out of 2025. Combined with the new five-launch Neutron block buy disclosed alongside Q1, the test result tightens the narrative from 'pad-side rocket on a slipping schedule' to 'rocket clearing real flight-load qualification on the announced timeline.'

The Analyst Wave

Monday opened with TD Cowen lifting its target to a street-high $120 from $90 and reiterating Buy. Cantor Fitzgerald walked theirs to $96 from $85 on launch cadence and the Space Systems mix shift, with Stifel to $110, Citizens to $95, and Clear Street to $98 stacking through the morning. The bull case is converging fast — even after Friday's 30% move, more than half the published targets now sit above Friday's close. Analyst follow-through of this size after a one-day repricing is rare; it usually signals the prior models were materially under-spec on backlog and Space Systems margin, not that the desks are chasing tape.

Spot vs Perp

Cash RKLB traded a $102.99 to $122.93 intraday range on roughly 40M shares against a 24M average — the second consecutive session of well-above-average volume. The xyz:RKLB perp marking $123.80 is now sitting at or just above the high cash print of the day, the mirror image of last week's setup, when spot closed $78.58 against a perp tagged in the low $100s. The premium has compressed into something closer to fair, but with a $2.2B backlog up 108% year over year and Neutron's first flight still penciled for late 2026, the structural bid has fundamentals underneath it. Less arb cushion in either direction now; the next leg likely needs an actual Neutron static-fire or a defense award to validate the multiple expansion.