Silver Grinds Into the $70 Floor as the Dollar Index Breaks 100

Dollar Crosses 100, Silver Follows It Down

The sell-off that began with Trump's April 1 primetime address — in which he rejected a ceasefire and promised two to three more weeks of escalated strikes against Iran — has continued into a second session. Silver dropped 4.22% to $72.87 on COMEX in the initial reaction, and the Hyperliquid perp has extended that move to $70.7.

The mechanism is the same one that has driven silver's 44% decline from its January all-time high of $121.64: war keeps oil elevated, elevated oil keeps inflation hot, hot inflation keeps the Fed on hold, and a Fed on hold keeps the dollar strong and rate-cut expectations at zero. The dollar index broke above 100.08 on April 2 — up 0.43% on the session — creating a direct headwind for any non-yielding asset.

The $70 Floor

Silver is now sitting on the price level that has held three separate times in 2026. The $67–$71 zone has been the range floor since the February war-driven crash, and at $70.7 the perp is squarely in that territory.

The technical picture has deteriorated. The 50-period EMA at $71.87 — which had been acting as near-term resistance on the way down — is now broken. The 200-period EMA sits at $78.74, more than 11% overhead. If $67.34 fails, the next reference is $61.55, which would erase the entirety of silver's remaining 2026 gains.

The previous three tests of this zone all bounced. Whether the fourth does may depend on whether Trump's "two to three weeks" framing gives markets a credible timeline for de-escalation — or simply confirms that the Hormuz disruption has no end in sight.

Physical Supply Says Otherwise

Even as the price drops, COMEX registered silver inventories continue to drain. Registered metal has declined roughly 14% over the past 30 days, with 12.3 million ounces leaving the vault entirely rather than shifting to eligible inventory. Paper leverage on COMEX sits at 7.4x — significantly more paper claims than deliverable metal.

The fundamental case for silver has not changed. Analysts project a sixth consecutive global supply deficit in 2026, driven by structural industrial demand from solar panels, EVs, and AI infrastructure. Most institutional forecasts still call for silver to end the year in the $90–$106 range.

But fundamentals do not trade well against a dollar at 100 and zero rate cuts on the board. The question is whether the $70 floor holds long enough for the macro picture to shift — or whether silver breaks down first and forces the supply bulls to reload at lower levels.

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