Silver Holds $75 as Strait of Hormuz Reopening Stalls

The Hormuz Reality Check

The headline from Thursday isn't silver's price — it's what's happening in the Persian Gulf. Despite the two-week ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively at a standstill. Only seven vessels transited from Wednesday into Thursday morning, all carrying Iranian cargo, compared to the normal 135+ daily transits. ADNOC's CEO told CNBC the Strait "is not open," with access "restricted, conditioned, and controlled."

Iran released a naval map late Wednesday indicating it may have mined the strait and outlining designated shipping lanes for approved vessels. Tehran is also pushing to charge a toll for passage — a position that directly contradicts Trump's ceasefire condition of "complete, immediate, and safe opening." The gap between the announcement and the on-the-water reality is the single most important variable for commodity markets right now.

Why $75 Is Holding

Silver faded from $78 to $74 within hours of the ceasefire as the deal started cracking. The fact that it's back above $75 and holding tells you something: the market is willing to pay up for even a fragile truce over open war.

The macro setup helps. Crude oil's 16–20% crash from the ceasefire announcement is easing energy-driven inflation fears, which makes the Fed less likely to hike — markets have now reversed earlier expectations of a rate increase. A weaker dollar adds another tailwind. And structurally, silver is running a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year, with Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories at their lowest since 2015 and global ETFs logging strong inflows through April.

Islamabad on Friday

Iran confirmed that talks begin in Islamabad on Friday, April 10, based on Tehran's 10-point proposal. For silver, the binary is straightforward: if Hormuz starts reopening for real — not seven ships but hundreds — the energy deflation trade accelerates and silver likely retests $78–80. If talks stall and Iran maintains its toll-and-permission framework, crude reprices higher and silver gives back the $75 floor it's defending.

Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon despite the ceasefire add a complication — Iran cited those strikes as justification for restricting Hormuz passage. The truce is fragile in ways that go beyond the bilateral US-Iran channel, and Friday's outcome will set the tone for whether $75 is a launchpad or a ceiling.

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