SK Hynix Rebounds 12% as US-Iran Ceasefire Signals End March's Korean Selloff

The Catalyst: Ceasefire Signals From Both Sides

On March 31, US President Donald Trump stated at a White House signing ceremony that he planned to withdraw from Iran "very soon." Hours later, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled conditional willingness to end the war, provided "there is a guarantee there will be no further attacks." Both statements landing on the same day was enough to flip the switch on a market that had been hammered by conflict risk for weeks.

The KOSPI responded immediately. Pre-market trading on the NexTrade alternative system opened up 5.03%, with SK hynix climbing 7.56% to 868,000 won before the bell. By afternoon, the index had surged nearly 9%, with Samsung extending gains past 13% and SK hynix past 11%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had already ripped 6.24% overnight in New York, setting the tone before Seoul opened.

March's Damage and the Snapback Setup

The scale of this bounce only makes sense against what March did to Korean equities. The KOSPI dropped over 19% for the month, its worst monthly performance in decades. Samsung and SK hynix each lost more than 20%.

The damage was multi-layered. Iran's missile strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan complex in mid-March threatened roughly 30% of global helium supply, a critical input for semiconductor fabrication. Oil spiked above $110, the won broke through 1,500 to the dollar, and foreign investors pulled ₩1.87 trillion in a single session. Then Google's TurboQuant algorithm raised fears that AI could need far less memory than consensus expected, and OpenAI's shutdown of its video generation model Sora added to the narrative of shrinking AI memory demand.

By the end of March, Korean chipmakers were priced for a prolonged downturn. The ceasefire signals on the 31st gave bargain hunters the excuse they needed.

Beyond the Bounce: What Holds

The ceasefire-driven rally addresses one risk — geopolitical supply disruption — but SK hynix's fundamental setup remains strong independent of the conflict resolution. February semiconductor exports from South Korea hit $32.83 billion, up 151.4% year-on-year and the first time the figure exceeded $30 billion. HBM demand from hyperscalers continues to tighten supply, and SK hynix has signaled it sees a seller's market through 2026.

The company's confidential filing for a US ADR listing — potentially raising $10–14 billion to fund HBM expansion in Yongin and Indiana — adds another structural bid. At roughly 11x earnings versus Micron's 29x, the valuation gap is wide enough that a US listing alone could force a re-rating. Earnings on April 29 will be the next hard data point — Q4 2025 already showed revenue up 46.76% year-on-year to ₩97.15 trillion.

What to Watch

The ceasefire is still conditional. Pezeshkian's "guarantee of no further attacks" language leaves room for talks to collapse, and the market priced in optimism fast — a reversal would hit the same oversold names hardest. The won's trajectory matters too: SKHX converts KRW to USD at the prevailing FX rate, so won strength on easing geopolitical risk directly lifts the perp's dollar price on top of the underlying equity move.

The Google TurboQuant overhang hasn't disappeared either. If the algorithm's memory reduction claims hold up in production workloads, the demand narrative that underpins SK hynix's premium to commodity DRAM could erode. For now, the ASML EUV order worth $7.97 billion suggests management isn't pulling back on capacity — they're doubling down.

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