SanDisk Reclaims Ground Above $1,600 as the Samsung Memory Rout Unwinds

A Bounce, Not a Breakout

SNDK is up 9.73% over six hours to roughly $1,648, and there is no fresh headline inside that window to hang it on. This is the same recovery trade that's been running since the stock cracked $1,500 support earlier in the week — a mechanical snapback in one of the most violent charts on the board. SanDisk is still up more than 600% year to date after peaking above $2,350, so double-digit swings are the baseline here, not the exception. Read today as mean-reversion off a broken level, not a new leg driven by news.

How the Rout Started

The setup for the bounce was the drop that preceded it. Samsung's blowout preliminary earnings print touched off a classic sell-the-news unwind across the memory complex this week, and SNDK led the move down, slicing through $1,500 support and probing toward $1,250 intraday. The selling wasn't SanDisk-specific — it was the entire NAND/DRAM trade coming off a parabolic run, compounded by supply-glut fears that had already knocked memory names lower in early July. Today's move is that trade partially reversing, nothing more exotic.

Goldman's Cover and a Fresh Supply Data Point

The bounce does have a tailwind. Goldman raised its SanDisk target 83% to $2,200 from $1,200 while keeping a Buy, citing tight NAND supply, ramping enterprise SSD demand from hyperscalers, and revised pricing — modeling a "very strong quarter" into the fiscal Q4 print due in August. On the supply side, SanDisk and Kioxia began production of their 10th-generation 3D NAND at the Kitakami Fab2 at the start of the month, with the joint-venture framework now extended through 2034. Neither is a same-day catalyst, but both give the dip-buyers a thesis to lean on.

What Still Argues Against It

The bear case didn't go anywhere. SanDisk has reportedly locked in only about a third of its fiscal 2027 bit supply under multi-year contracts, leaving the majority exposed to spot NAND pricing that bulls simply assume stays tight — the single number that decides whether the high-margin story holds. At a P/E north of 50x and up 600%+ on the year, the stock is priced for the tight-supply scenario to play out, not merely to persist. The fiscal Q4 report in August is where that gets settled; until then, moves like today's are the market arguing with itself, not resolving anything.