Bernstein Nearly Doubles Its SanDisk Target to $3,000 as NAND ASPs Run Hot

The Re-Rate

On July 9, Bernstein nearly doubled its price target on SanDisk to $3,000 from $1,700, reiterating an Outperform rating and framing the call as a major re-rate rather than a routine tweak. That was the spark: SNDK ground from the mid-$1,700s to the high-$1,900s, up 13.71% over 16 hours to $1,896, with the Hyperliquid perp clearing roughly $290M in 24-hour volume.

Bernstein wasn't alone. In the same session, Wedbush lifted its target to $2,000 from $1,200, and the move builds on Bank of America's $2,100 Buy-rated target from a month earlier. Bernstein's number now sits roughly 58% above spot — a striking gap for a name that has already run this far.

Analysts Chasing the ASP Curve

The common thread across both hikes is that NAND pricing is running hotter than the sell-side modeled. Wedbush said industry checks pointed to pricing gains in the high double digits, versus prior guidance implying only mid-to-high-teens ASP growth — an admission its own model was too conservative. It now assumes blended bit ASPs rise roughly 30% quarter over quarter and raised its FY2027 EPS estimate to about $226 from $195.

That fits the physical market. SanDisk has reportedly raised NAND flash contract prices by around 50% as AI infrastructure demand collides with a supply base that can't add capacity fast enough. With the stock up roughly 800% year to date, these target hikes read more like analysts marking to a tape that already re-rated than leading it.

The Round Trip and What Breaks It

Zoom out and this rally round-trips the scare from earlier in the week, when SanDisk dropped about 14% in a day on fears the Samsung-led DRAM spike signaled a memory-cycle top. The bull case is unchanged — a NAND shortage analysts expect to persist into 2027 — but so is the risk.

The thing that breaks a $3,000 target built on 30% quarter-over-quarter ASP gains is those ASPs rolling over. Tom's Hardware notes the memory price surge is starting to cool as buyers hit affordability limits, and SanDisk's biggest NAND rival is heading to Nasdaq — a reminder that today's pricing power is a function of scarcity that new supply and softer demand can erode. For now the shortage trade is intact; the tell will be the next contract-pricing print.