SNDK Pushes to $1,190 as Cantor Goes to $1,800 and Bernstein to $1,700

The Hike Stack Reset Higher

The HIP-3 perp on xyz:SNDK printed $1,190, up 17.52% over 24h, as the sell-side tape that already looked aggressive after Q3 kept getting reset. Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $1,800 from $1,400, citing pricing strength and the new multi-year contract model — its second hike in two weeks, after moving to $1,400 from $1,000 ahead of the print. Bernstein went to $1,700 from $1,250, pointing at strong guidance, company commentary, and a pricing environment the firm called very strong. Wells Fargo, still Equal Weight, lifted to $975 from $675 under the headline "we've clearly missed Sandisk." That is three target hikes ratifying the same story: the prior models were too low even after the last round of hikes.

What They're Pricing

Sandisk's Q3 FY2026 came in at $5.95B in revenue, up 251% YoY, with adjusted gross margin near 78% and EPS of $23.41 against a Street estimate around $14.66. The Q4 guide of $7.75–$8.25B in revenue and $30–$33 in non-GAAP EPS sits well above prior consensus, and management authorized a $6B buyback alongside the print. The bigger story is the contract stack: three deals struck during the quarter lock in at least $42 billion in contractual revenue, and five total agreements carry over $11 billion in customer financial guarantees through prepayments and outside financial instruments. Those five contracts cover roughly a third of Sandisk's 2027 supply, with $0.4B of prepayments already on the Q3 balance sheet.

The Setup

The thesis is mechanical: hyperscalers need NAND for AI, supply is tight, and Sandisk is locking in years of demand at prices the sell side keeps under-modeling. CEO David Goeckeler called the quarter a "fundamental inflection point" and described customers putting up billions of dollars of collateral through financial instruments that survive for the life of the contracts. The risk side is just as plain. The perp is up 17.52% in a session on a name up roughly 275% YTD and is now trading well above where it sat 24 hours ago when we covered Cantor's first $1,400 hike. Cantor's $1,800 leaves visible upside from $1,190; Bernstein's $1,700 is tighter; Wells Fargo's $975 is already underwater. The next test is whether positions sitting on extraordinary gains can absorb profit-taking before the next analyst note prints.