SanDisk Bounces Off $1,350 Support as the Memory Selloff Cools

Why $1,350 Held

The honest read on a 6.66% move to about $1,438 is that the tape did this, not a press release. SanDisk fell roughly 29% over the prior week into the $1,350 shelf, where the 200 EMA near $1,352 and the Hull moving average stacked up with an RSI that had sunk to about 34.70 — near oversold. When a name that ran more than 470% year-to-date gets that stretched to the downside at a level every desk is watching, mean reversion tends to do the rest. Friday's $1,354.82 close was the flush; this bounce is the snap-back off it. The first real overhead sits at the $1,550–$1,580 range, and until that clears, this is a relief move inside a broken uptrend, not a new leg.

The Memory Trade Caught a Bid

SNDK did not turn alone. On July 20 the whole memory complex stabilized — Micron gained about 3% and SanDisk roughly 2.5% in spot — after a week in which investors dumped the highest-flying chip names on doubts about the durability of Big Tech AI capex. The bull case underneath never actually broke: NAND and DRAM remain supply-tight, with KeyBanc modeling NAND price gains of 30–40% this quarter and DRAM shortages stretching into 2027. That is the whole tension in one chart — the fundamentals say pricing power, last week's tape said late-cycle. Today the fundamentals won the session, but a single green day does not settle that argument.

The Gap the Street Still Sees

Even after the drawdown, spot near $1,438 sits well below where the sell side models this stock. Goldman Sachs nearly doubled its target to $2,200 on July 5, applying roughly 20x a normalized $110 EPS, while Wedbush moved to $2,000 and Bernstein to $3,000. The fundamentals give them cover: fiscal Q3 revenue rose 251% to $5.9 billion with gross margin at 78% and EPS swinging to $23.41, and the data-center segment grew 645%. SanDisk also locked in five multi-year supply agreements carrying $11 billion in guarantees. The counter is plain — valuation and customer-concentration risk after a 3,000%-plus twelve-month run. The resolution comes soon: Q4 earnings on August 5 is the next print that tells you which side of the $1,438-to-$2,200 gap is real.