SNDK Reclaims $1,529 as the Memory Supercycle Bid Resets After the Korea Scare

The Bounce

SNDK is +9.08% over the last 15 hours to $1,529, putting it within roughly 1.2% of the $1,547.56 record close printed earlier this week. The move effectively closes the gap from Tuesday's 6.17% sector rinse, when a coordinated selloff swept through memory and semiconductor names on macro pressure rather than anything specific to SanDisk. The bid is broad: SK Hynix and Samsung opened sharply higher in Seoul, and the Roundhill memory ETF DRAM is back near its highs after doubling year-to-date. With the Blue House clarifying that Kim Yong-beom's AI-dividend Facebook post was personal opinion rather than policy, the macro overhang that hit memory on Monday has effectively been retired.

Why the Supercycle Bid Won't Quit

The setup behind this rip has not changed. SanDisk's fiscal Q3 print on April 30 put revenue at $5.95 billion, up 97% sequentially and 251% year-over-year, with datacenter revenue at $1.47 billion — a 645% YoY gain driven by TLC enterprise SSD demand and a calendar-2026 datacenter growth guide of mid-70%. The company also announced a $6 billion buyback with no expiration, funded by $2.96 billion of adjusted free cash flow in the quarter alone. Sell-side has caught up: Bernstein is at $1,700, BofA at $1,550, Raymond James at $1,470, Jefferies at $1,400. With Gartner modeling NAND prices up 234% in 2026 and most of SanDisk's 2026 wafer output already under contract, every datacenter capex upgrade out of the hyperscalers is a direct read-through here.

The Setup From Here

Tuesday's selloff worked off the worst of the overbought condition, and this bounce is happening on confirmation that the Korea risk was a one-day headline rather than the start of a regulatory regime. The natural target is the $1,547.56 high; a clean break opens the door to the next round-number leg and re-engages the bull case sell-side has been writing about — Bernstein's $1,700 implies another 11% from here, and the most bullish desks are talking $2,000. The risk is symmetric: this is a +500% YTD name with average analyst targets around $1,399 already implying ~10% downside from spot. The perp tape on Hyperliquid shows $148M of 24h volume on this market alone, so positioning can move fast in either direction once the cash session opens.