SanDisk Round-Trips the Meta NAND Pop, Back to Its Memory-Selloff Low

Back to Square One

SNDK is down 11.17% over the last 17 hours to about $1,745. The level tells the story: that's within a few dollars of the ~$1,743 low it printed on July 7 at the depths of the memory-sector crash. In between, a leaked memo and a Reuters-confirmed multi-year Meta flash deal lifted the stock roughly 10% back toward $1,900. This move gives all of that back — a clean round-trip, with no fresh company catalyst to explain either leg. SNDK now sits about 26% below its June 22 high near $2,354.

The Selloff Samsung Started

The drawdown didn't start with SanDisk. It started with Samsung's Q2 report on July 7 — a blowout (sales up roughly 28% sequentially, operating profit up nearly twentyfold) that the market treated as buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news. Samsung paired the print with plans to build "massive" new fabrication plants, reviving the single fear that governs memory equities: that today's shortage becomes tomorrow's glut. South Korean chip names led the unwind, with SK Hynix and Samsung both off more than 12% and the KOSPI down roughly 10%, dragging Micron, Western Digital and SanDisk with them. This is the memory cycle behaving exactly as it always has — demand rises, supply returns, prices fall — and a name up nearly 4,000% over the past year at roughly 64x earnings is the first thing traders sell when that fear returns.

A Real Deal, Beaten by Flows

The Meta agreement wasn't vapor. It's a multi-year NAND supply deal tied to Meta's plan to stand up 7 gigawatts of AI compute in 2026 and 14 by 2027, and SanDisk has separately disclosed about $42 billion in minimum contracted revenue across its long-term agreements. That is a real fundamental datapoint — and it still couldn't hold a bid against sector-wide de-risking. That's the tell: positioning and the memory-glut narrative are pricing this stock right now, not the contract book. The next hard catalyst is fiscal Q4 earnings on August 5, with an Investor Day on August 13. Until the numbers land, SNDK trades the cycle, not the deals — and with about $121 million in 24-hour perp volume here, the flows tape is pointing down.