SPACEX Reprices to $1.85T as Anthropic Locks Up Colossus Compute

The Catalyst: Anthropic Takes the Whole Cluster

On May 6, Anthropic and SpaceX announced a compute partnership that gives Anthropic access to the full available capacity of Colossus 1, the supercomputer cluster SpaceX inherited when it absorbed xAI in February. The agreement covers more than 300 megawatts of compute and roughly 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, and per the xAI partnership note Anthropic also expressed interest in working with SpaceX on multi-gigawatt orbital compute. Within hours, Anthropic doubled five-hour rate limits on Claude Code — visible confirmation that the new capacity is already online.

This is the first hard commercial validation of the xAI merger thesis. SpaceX paid $1.25 trillion in February to fold xAI into the launch and Starlink stack, and the bear case has been that orbital data centers are a decade-out story while terrestrial compute is saturated. Anthropic just bought the terrestrial inventory in size and parked a stated interest in the orbital roadmap. Bank of America flagged that the deal effectively tees Anthropic and SpaceX up to absorb a meaningful share of public-market AI demand — exactly the market the perp is trying to price.

One day later, SpaceX ran a full-duration, full-thrust 33-engine static fire on Super Heavy V3. The booster cleared cleanly, and trackers now have NET May 15 for the next Starship test flight. A successful V3 flight is the single biggest derisking event for the launch-cost trajectory underwriting the IPO valuation.

What the Perp Is Actually Pricing

At $1,852, the SPACEX perp implies a total company valuation of about $1.85 trillion. That sits roughly 30% above where private secondaries are clearing — Hiive lists SpaceX shares at $615.80 and Forge's derived price is around $632.98, both pinning implied market cap closer to $1.4 trillion. The perp has decoupled from secondary marks and is now pricing the banker-marketed IPO range, not the last private clearing print.

The marketed band is $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion with a target raise around $75 billion, and SpaceX is reportedly preparing to convert its confidential S-1 filing into a public one the week of May 18-22. At $1.85T, the perp sits almost exactly at the midpoint of that range — the market currently believes the underwriters' number but is not yet pricing the upside print. Any leak that the public filing comes in above $2T leaves room to run; any indication the syndicate is walking the range down is the cleanest short setup on the board.

What to Watch Into the IPO Window

Three discrete dates sit in the next month. The public S-1 conversion in the week of May 18-22 is the first time audited financials become visible — 2025 revenue is reported around $15-16 billion with roughly $8 billion of EBITDA, and the actual disclosed numbers will reset valuation comps in either direction. The next Starship test flight is NET May 15; a clean catch and reflight removes the operational risk bears keep pointing at. The roadshow kicks off the week of June 8, with listing expected late June — that is the moment the perp converges to a real public price.

The risk side is just as clean. Volume on this market is thin at roughly $1.2 million over the last 24 hours, so single tickets move the mark several percent and a 12.77% session is well inside the realized range for a sentiment-driven valuation tracker. Leverage is capped at 3x, which keeps positioning manageable but also means any aggressive narrative reversal — a delayed S-1, a Starship anomaly, or a syndicate revising the marketed range lower — will be priced violently into a market that has just rerated 13% in a day.