SPCX Fades the Ark Bounce With 911.5 Million Shares About to Unlock

Yesterday's Bounce, Today's Fade

SPCX is down 4.10% to $124.20 on Hyperliquid, unwinding most of Monday's 5.69% pop that had carried it back to roughly $127. That rebound had a specific trigger: SpaceX set August 4 as its first-ever earnings date and snapped a seven-day losing streak, and Cathie Wood's Ark Invest kept adding to the position it hasn't trimmed since the June IPO. None of that changed the structural picture. The stock is still ~11% below its $135 IPO price and roughly 45% off the $225.64 peak it printed on June 16, with the $119.68 post-IPO low from last week sitting just underneath. Today is the market giving that dead-cat bounce back.

The 911-Million-Share Overhang

The real weight on the tape is the calendar, not the session. SpaceX reports its maiden quarterly earnings after the close on August 4, and on August 6 — the second full trading day after — up to 911.5 million shares, about 20% of restricted holdings, become eligible to sell. At current prices that single tranche is roughly $109 billion of stock, more than the IPO raised in the first place. A conditional second tranche of 455.8 million shares only unlocks if SPCX can close 30% above the IPO price — $175.50 — on five of the ten days into earnings, and at $124.20 that trigger is deeply out of the money. Smaller ~7% tranches then release every few weeks into late October, with the block fully unwound by December. Musk's own stake stays locked until June 2027, but the near-term supply picture is the reason bounces keep getting sold.

The Starship Card Nobody's Pricing

Sitting on top of the supply overhang is a genuine binary event. Starship Flight 13 is targeted for July 23, the first attempt since the July 16 last-second abort that scrubbed the rocket as its Raptor engines were lighting, and the debut flight for V3 Starlink satellites. De-risking into a launch the night before helps explain why the Ark bounce faded rather than extended. A clean flight is the one plausible catalyst that could pull attention off the August lock-up and put a floor under the stock; another abort or a failed test hands sellers the narrative right as the unlock window opens. For now the tape is trading the unraveling of the post-IPO rally, and $119.68 is the level that matters.