SPCX Fades Toward Its $135 IPO Price as a SCATMAN Hack Grabs the Headlines

The Bleed Is the Story, Not the Hack

SPCX priced its IPO at $135 and opened at $150 on June 12, ran to an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, then bled lower for a month straight. The Nasdaq-100 inclusion on July 7 was supposed to force roughly $4.3 billion of passive buying; instead it played out as a textbook buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news. At $139.60 the stock is about 38% below that June high and sitting just $4.60 above its IPO price. Today's 4.32% leg is a continuation of that unwind, not a reaction to any single fresh number — the short interest Reuters flagged in late June is simply still being pressed.

The SCATMAN Hack Is Noise, Not Signal

The headline traders woke up to is ugly but empty. On July 12, SpaceX's and Starlink's verified X accounts were hijacked to shill a memecoin called SCATMAN on Robinhood Chain. The attacker minted 10 trillion tokens, briefly pushed the token to a $32 million market cap, and dumped everything for about $135,000 in ether before the accounts were restored that evening. That's a social-engineering smash-and-grab, not a business event: nothing about SpaceX's launch cadence, Starlink's subscriber base, or xAI changed overnight. A ~$135K rug run through a hijacked timeline is not a reason to reprice a company that IPO'd near a $1.8 trillion valuation, and the tape is correctly treating it as noise rather than a fundamental hit.

What's Actually on the Clock

The real risk is structural and dated. SpaceX booked a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025 and a $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026, with negative free cash flow projected through 2029 and only Starlink carrying its weight. The $25 billion bond deal from June is investment-grade on paper but, per Forbes, "trades like junk." Then there's the supply cliff: on August 6, Q2 earnings collide with the first insider lockup expiration, after which up to 44% of a float that started at roughly 5% can begin to unlock into the market. The HIP-3 perp turned over about $110.9 million in the last 24 hours, so there is no shortage of two-sided interest to trade the range — but that August calendar, not a hijacked tweet, is what sets the tone into the fall.