SPCX Draws Its First Bear Call as the Space Complex Sells Off

The Only Bear in the Room

On the same session that a wave of Wall Street desks initiated SPCX with buy ratings, MoffettNathanson broke from the pack with a Neutral rating and a $131 price target — roughly 18% below Monday's $160.42 close, and the only sell-side call on the Street pointing lower.

The firm called SpaceX's nearly $30 trillion total-addressable-market estimate "absurd," questioned the direct-to-device wireless forecasts, and noted that Musk's goal of deploying 100 gigawatts of orbital compute a year by the end of 2029 exceeds today's entire installed global data-center capacity. Its conclusion: there is "no credible financial model" behind the roughly $2 trillion valuation — and even the Neutral tag "might be overly generous." Against a consensus that still averages a ~$188 target, that is the first real anchor a short seller can point to.

This Is a Space-Complex Fade

Read the tape and it is clear SPCX is not trading on a company-specific miss. The entire space complex sold off in sympathy: Rocket Lab dropped about 10%, AST SpaceMobile fell 6%, and Virgin Galactic slid 5%, with SPCX itself down about 5% to $152.09. That is a de-rating of the high-multiple, story-driven names, not a SpaceX headline.

Layer on the mechanics of the Nasdaq-100 inclusion that went effective July 7: most of the ~$4.3 billion of QQQ demand, and up to $27 billion across all index trackers, had already been filled by the July 6 close and July 7 open. The passive bid that was supposed to lift the stock was largely spent before the ticker officially joined. Buy the rumor, sell the news, textbook.

The Supply Setup Gets Worse Before It Gets Better

The float is the whole story. Only 3–5% of SpaceX shares trade publicly — Musk holds roughly 46% and early investors most of the rest — which is exactly why forced index buying couldn't overwhelm even modest profit-taking. When almost nothing is available, a small amount of selling moves the tape.

The next real test is supply, not demand. The first insider lockup tranche opens after Q2 earnings, expected around Aug 6, dropping fresh shares into a thin market right as the index bid finishes fading. Musk's own stake stays locked until June 2027, so the near-term overhang is the early-investor unlock, not the founder. Until that clears, the path of least resistance is a market where most of the natural passive buyers are already full.