How to Trade USA Rare Earth (USAR) on Hyperliquid

What Is USA Rare Earth

USA Rare Earth (Nasdaq: USAR) is attempting something no American company has done before: build a complete mine-to-magnet rare earth supply chain entirely on U.S. soil. The company's centerpiece is the Round Top deposit in Hudspeth County, Texas — North America's richest known deposit of heavy rare earths, containing 15 of the 17 rare earth elements along with gallium, beryllium, lithium, and zirconium. In March 2026, USAR acquired full ownership of Round Top by purchasing Texas Mineral Resources Corp. for approximately $73 million in stock.

On the manufacturing side, USAR is building a 310,000+ square foot sintered neodymium magnet plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma. The first production line (600 metric tons annually) is targeting commissioning in Q1 2026, with a second line adding another 600 MT by year-end. At full buildout, the facility could produce nearly 5,000 metric tons of magnets per year — hundreds of millions of individual magnets destined for defense systems, electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

The company is pre-revenue with a trailing EPS of roughly -$0.17. Every dollar USAR spends right now is an investment in future production. Commercial mining at Round Top is targeted for late 2028, two years ahead of its original schedule.

The $3.1 Billion Capital Stack

In January 2026, USAR secured a Letter of Intent with the Department of Commerce's CHIPS Program for up to $1.6 billion in funding — $277 million in direct federal investment plus a $1.3 billion senior secured loan. In exchange, the government received 16.1 million shares and approximately 17.6 million warrants, giving it an 8-16% ownership stake in the company.

Concurrently, USAR closed a $1.5 billion oversubscribed PIPE anchored by Inflection Point and brokered by Cantor Fitzgerald. That brings total committed capital to $3.1 billion — a staggering amount for a company with a market cap around $3.9 billion.

The deal is not without controversy. Democratic senators raised conflict-of-interest concerns over Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's family ties to Cantor Fitzgerald, which served as lead placement agent. Participants in the PIPE reportedly included billionaire Trump allies Steve Schwarzman, Ken Griffin, and Steven A. Cohen. The political dimensions add a layer of headline risk, though they haven't derailed the funding commitment so far.

Why USAR Matters Right Now

The investment thesis is geopolitical at its core. China controls roughly 91% of global rare earth processing and holds a virtual monopoly over heavy rare earth refining — the exact elements needed for permanent magnets in missiles, jet engines, and advanced electronics. In late 2025, China imposed its most stringent rare earth and magnet export controls yet, restricting products with even trace Chinese content. Those restrictions are currently paused until November 2026 under the U.S.-China trade agreement, but the structural vulnerability is clear.

USAR is the only company with both a CHIPS Act LOI and a heavy rare earth deposit on American soil. The U.S. and Japan are also formalizing a joint critical minerals framework as of March 2026, involving Mitsubishi Materials and Mitsui & Co., which signals that the rare earth reshoring effort extends well beyond USAR — but also confirms the strategic urgency that underpins its thesis.

For traders, the timing is notable. USAR has assembled the capital, consolidated the asset base, and begun staffing for execution. The Stillwater magnet plant is approaching commissioning. The question is no longer whether the money is there, but whether the company can convert it into actual output on schedule.

Key Trading Considerations

USAR trades on Hyperliquid as a HIP-3 perpetual futures contract that tracks the value of one share of common stock. The perp lets traders take leveraged long or short positions on a pre-revenue mining and manufacturing company — which means this is inherently a high-conviction, high-volatility instrument.

The bull case is compelling: $3.1 billion in capital, government backing that amounts to a strategic national interest designation, and a near-monopoly position in domestic heavy rare earths. Analyst price targets cluster around $33-35, roughly double current levels. Any escalation in U.S.-China tensions or tightening of Chinese export controls would likely reprice the entire domestic rare earth sector higher.

The bear case is equally real. USAR has never generated revenue. The CHIPS funding is milestone-based and the LOI is non-binding at this stage. Operating expenses are rising fast — legal fees, consulting costs, and the recent hiring spree all burn cash during a pre-revenue buildout. The most recent quarterly EPS of -$0.17 missed estimates, following a prior quarter where the loss was four times worse than expected. Government equity and warrants represent meaningful dilution.

Key catalysts ahead include the Stillwater Line 1a commissioning (expected Q1 2026), the closing of the Texas Mineral Resources acquisition (targeted Q3 2026), and any shift in Chinese export policy when the current pause expires in November. This stock moves on headlines — government deals, geopolitical escalation, and production milestones all generate outsized price swings on a name with daily volume that can vary by 5x.

Trading on Hyperliquid

Trade USAR on Hyperliquid with up to 10x leverage.