WTI Drops 19% After Trump Announces Two-Week Iran Ceasefire

The Ceasefire

Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday evening that he would "suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks" at the request of Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif, who has been serving as intermediary between Washington and Tehran. The condition: Iran must agree to the "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING" of the Strait of Hormuz. Israel also agreed to pause strikes.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council accepted the framework within hours. Peace talks are set to begin Friday, April 10 in Islamabad, with VP Vance expected to lead the U.S. delegation. Iran proposed a 10-point plan that includes withdrawal of U.S. combat forces and lifting of sanctions — Trump called it a "workable basis on which to negotiate."

This is a sharp reversal from 48 hours earlier, when Trump was threatening to annihilate Iranian infrastructure if Tehran didn't reopen the strait by his Tuesday night deadline. The pivot from maximum escalation to ceasefire happened fast enough to catch the oil market completely offsides.

Why the Market Is Skeptical

The headline is peace. The fine print is murkier. Iran's foreign minister said safe passage through the strait would be possible "via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces", claiming "continued Iranian control over the Strait." That is not the unconditional reopening Trump demanded.

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned that the two-week pause likely means "another two weeks of status quo and barely anything getting through the Strait." Even in the best-case scenario, shipping companies estimate at least two months to resume normal tanker operations — crews need to be recalled, insurance renegotiated, and vessels repositioned from alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope.

The strait has been effectively closed to Western-aligned shipping since February 28, when the crisis began. Before the war, it handled roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil. Even at ceasefire lows, WTI is still up more than 70% year-to-date. The geopolitical risk premium has been deflated, not eliminated.

The Price Action

WTI traded as high as $117 on Tuesday before Trump's post hit. Within hours it had fallen below $94 — a 19% intraday reversal and the largest single-session oil crash since the 1991 Gulf War. Brent crude dropped roughly 16% to about $93.

Equity markets treated the news as unambiguously bullish. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.5%, Dow futures gained 1,000 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed nearly 3%. Gold rose 2.5% and silver 4.6%, reflecting the broader risk-on rotation out of energy hedges.

On Hyperliquid's cash:WTI perp, the move was amplified by thinner order books and 24/7 trading. The perp dropped 16.4% over ten hours as the ceasefire news propagated — directionally in line with traditional futures but with wider swings, which is typical for crypto-native commodity perps during extreme volatility events. Retail gas stood at $4.14 per gallon and diesel at $5.64 heading into the session, both unlikely to move much during a two-week pause that may not produce real barrels.

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