Nasdaq-100 Sheds 4.7% as a Hot Jobs Print Revives the December Rate-Hike Bet

The Jobs Print That Reset the Fed

The trigger was the May payrolls report. The economy added 172,000 jobs against forecasts of roughly 80,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. A labor market running that hot does not square with a Fed that cuts, and the rates market said so immediately: traders now put the probability of a rate hike by December near 70%.

That is the single worst input for the Nasdaq-100. The index is, in effect, a leveraged bet on long-duration cash flows, and every basis point of upward repricing in the front end compresses the multiples the megacap and growth names carry. The Nasdaq Composite dropped close to 3%, its biggest one-day loss going back to April 2025, while the S&P 500 fell more than 2% and the Dow shed roughly 491 points. This is the same playbook that hit the tape in May on hot CPI and PPI prints — strong data, higher-for-longer, growth gives it back.

Broadcom Set the Tone

The chip complex went into the jobs number already bleeding. Broadcom had beaten on both lines — $22.19 billion in revenue versus $22.12 billion expected, $2.44 adjusted EPS versus $2.40, with AI semiconductor revenue up 143% year over year to $10.8 billion. It was not enough. The stock fell nearly 14% as its AI guidance missed the elevated bar the market had set after a year of the AI trade carrying everything.

The message there matters more than the single print: when a name doubling its AI revenue gets sold 14%, perfection is now the baseline and anything short of it is a reason to trim. That repricing of the AI bar bled across the group. On the session, Marvell dropped about 12%, Micron around 11%, AMD roughly 10%, and Intel more than 9%, with Nvidia down about 5%. The names that did the most work pushing the index to record highs were the ones doing the most damage on the way down.

Same Duration Trade, Same Bill

This is a continuation, not a new story. When Trump left Beijing in mid-May with a Boeing order and little else, the damage came from the bond market — yields ripping to one-year highs as sticky inflation kept the Fed boxed in. The mechanism on June 5 is identical: the data refuses to cool, the front end reprices hawkish, and the index pays the bill.

The perp move is worth reading on its own terms. XYZ100 fell roughly 4.7% to about $29,060, a wider cut than the cash Nasdaq-100 because the HIP-3 contract trades 24/7 and absorbs after-hours flow that the regular session can't. With around $815 million in 24h volume on this market alone and crowded long positioning into the highs, a hawkish surprise has more to push against. As long as the labor market keeps printing hot, the December hike stays live, and that is the variable this index can't hedge away.