Brent Slides Below $104 as Iran Signals Willingness to End War

Iran's Peace Signal

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told EU Council President António Costa on Tuesday that Iran possesses "the necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met, especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression." It was the most direct statement of willingness to negotiate from Tehran since the war began on February 28.

The conditions are heavy. Iran is demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, reparations, and security guarantees — terms Washington has publicly rejected. Trump said the conflict "won't last much longer" and suggested the strait would reopen "automatically" after U.S. withdrawal, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent contradicted that by saying the administration would "retake control of the straits." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the coming days "decisive."

Costa urged Iran to cease regional attacks and pursue diplomatic engagement through UN channels to maintain Hormuz navigation freedom. The White House claimed private negotiations are "progressing well," but the gap between Iran's public demands and Washington's stated positions remains wide.

The Unwind from $116

Brent touched $116 per barrel on Sunday morning — its highest since July 2022 and a 50% gain from $73 just four weeks ago. The selloff started Sunday evening after G7 finance and energy ministers held an emergency teleconference and pledged coordinated intervention, explicitly backing the IEA's record 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release.

Pezeshkian's statement on Tuesday compounded the move. Brent fell 2.9% to $104 and WTI dropped 2% to $101 as traders unwound war premium. Equities went the other way — the S&P 500 gained 2.4%, the Dow added 900 points, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.2% as markets priced lower energy costs.

The pattern has repeated several times this month. Trump's March 23 announcement of a five-day pause on military strikes triggered an 11% single-session crash in Brent, only for prices to recover when the pause expired without a deal. Energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates noted the market would "continue to zig and zag on Iran war headlines as the White House attempts to play up ongoing talks."

Hormuz Is Still Closed

The fundamental supply picture hasn't changed. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of global crude and gas transits — remains effectively shut. Iran has imposed a toll booth mechanism on shipping and is reportedly drafting legislation to make the tolls permanent. Approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude shipments have been halted since the conflict began.

The Trump administration itself appears divided on how to reopen it. The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House concluded reopening Hormuz would extend beyond Trump's four-to-six-week timeline, pivoting instead toward targeting Iran's missiles and navy before seeking diplomatic pressure.

The sell-off from $116 to below $104 is real, but it's built on headlines and hope, not restored supply. Until tankers are actually moving through Hormuz again, every ceasefire signal is just another catalyst for short-term positioning — and every breakdown in talks is a bid back above $110.

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