Brent Holds $97 as Navy Mine-Clearing Begins Inside the Strait

Inside the Strait

Two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers — USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG-121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) — transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and began mine countermeasure operations inside the Arabian Gulf. CENTCOM confirmed the mission is clearing sea mines laid by the IRGC since February, using Knifefish unmanned underwater vehicles and MH-60S helicopters equipped with laser detection systems.

The operation is running into the threat it was sent to resolve. CENTCOM itself has described the strait as an Iranian "kill box" — anti-ship missiles, drone swarms, fast-attack boats, and mine fields on all sides. The IRGC warned Sunday that approaching military vessels are "in breach of a ceasefire" and "will be dealt with severely." Iranian officials have separately acknowledged they cannot locate all the mines their own forces laid — a detail that undercuts any assumption the strait can be reopened cleanly or quickly.

The Supply Clock

The mine-clearing matters because the global oil supply buffer is running out. JPMorgan estimates that the last tankers to exit Hormuz before Iran's February 28 closure will reach their destinations by April 20 — the point at which pre-closure barrels are fully exhausted from the global supply chain. After that, the world's refiners are entirely dependent on non-Hormuz routes.

The throughput numbers make the bottleneck concrete. Pre-war, roughly 20 million barrels per day transited the strait. Last week, only 24 ships passed through, and on Friday just two — neither of them oil tankers. Over 150 commercial vessels remain anchored outside, unable or unwilling to risk the transit.

Iran's improvised toll system — over $1 million per vessel in yuan — briefly allowed a trickle of traffic from China, Russia, India, and a handful of aligned nations. Trump's declaration that the Navy will "seek and interdict every vessel that has paid a toll to Iran" targets that remaining channel directly.

What Monday Changes

At 10 AM ET Monday, CENTCOM begins formal enforcement of the blockade against all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas. The scoping is narrower than Trump's initial rhetoric: non-Iranian-port traffic can pass freely through the strait. Retired Admiral James Stavridis estimated the operation requires two carrier strike groups providing air cover, 12 destroyers and frigates outside the Gulf, and 6 additional warships plus UAE and Saudi vessels inside it.

The market's price action tells the story of that scoping. Brent spiked above $103 on the initial blockade announcement, pricing in a full strait closure. It has since pulled back to $97 as traders digest CENTCOM's clarification that only Iranian-port traffic is targeted. The open question is whether Monday's enforcement triggers an IRGC response — and whether a blockade that Stavridis described as "halfway between leaving it under Iranian control and Trump's earlier threat to wipe out Iran as a civilization" holds at that midpoint or escalates.

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