WTI Slides Back Toward Its Pre-War Floor as Hormuz Flows Near 75% of Normal

The Risk Premium Keeps Getting Sold

CL trades $69.92, down 3.55% over the last 20 hours, sitting just above Friday's $69.23 settle — the lowest WTI print since February 27. That settle came on a nearly 4% single-day drop, and the latest leg lower is the same trade reasserting itself.

The pattern since the US-Iran ceasefire has been mechanical: every geopolitical scare lifts crude for a session, then gets faded as physical barrels keep moving. The dominant force here isn't a single headline — it's the steady return of Gulf supply, and the market is repricing the geopolitical premium out of the curve one bounce at a time. Brent has tracked the same path, slipping to $72.68 with both benchmarks down close to 7% on the week.

Hormuz Is Reopening Faster Than the Bears Expected

The Strait of Hormuz is the whole story. Confirmed crude flows through the strait have climbed back toward 4.8 million barrels a day since the US-Iran deal — still well below the roughly 15 million bpd that moved through pre-war, but enough to restore Persian Gulf exports to about 75% of normal.

The pace is the surprise. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said flows are now "close to those before the start of the Iran war," with at least 20 million barrels exiting the strait in a single 24-hour window. Saudi Arabia has resumed loading at its Ras Tanura terminal, Oman opened temporary routes on June 25, and the tankers that sat stranded in the Gulf during the blockade have been clearing out. The one live risk to this thesis: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have warned against unauthorized crossings, so any re-escalation can still snap the premium back in fast.

What Caps the Bounce

Supply relief is only half of it — demand is leaning the same way. OPEC has trimmed its 2026 demand growth forecast to roughly 970,000 bpd, and Iran's anticipated sales under temporary sanctions relief add more barrels to a market that no longer fears a closed strait.

The arc is clean: the war that began February 28 spiked crude on Hormuz fears, and the June framework with its 60-day negotiation window has been unwinding that spike ever since. The level to watch is the pre-war floor near $69. Friday's $69.23 settle is right underneath, and intraday prints have already tagged $68.86, the lowest since February. Lose that and there's little technical support until lower; hold it and the next Hormuz hiccup gets a quick bid.