HIMS Slides Another 9% as JP Morgan, BofA, Jefferies Cut Targets After Q1 Miss

The Sell-Side Reset

JP Morgan's Cory Carpenter trimmed his target to $33 from $35 while keeping an Overweight rating, framing the print as a transition-cost issue rather than a thesis break. BofA was harsher: the bank pulled its multiple from roughly 32x to 28x calendar-2026 EBITDA, arguing that international ops are likely to run at breakeven for multiple years and warning Street estimates calling for $400 million-plus of 2027 EBITDA "will need to be reset given the significant investments Hims and Hers is making." Jefferies followed the $25 million 2026 EBITDA guide cut at both ends with its own reduction. Today's tape is consolidating those resets in real time, with the HIMS perp giving back another 9% to $24.93 on top of yesterday's after-hours bleed.

Why the Bleed Didn't Stop at the Print

Yesterday's after-hours move priced the Q1 miss itself — $608.1 million of revenue against $616.9 million consensus, a -$0.40 EPS loss against $0.03 expected, 800 basis points of gross margin compression to 65%. Today's cash session is digesting what came after the headlines. The 2026 EBITDA range was cut by $25 million on each end, and Q2 guide pinned margin at just 5 to 8% versus the 10 to 12% full-year corridor. The Novo Nordisk distribution arrangement is doing exactly what it was designed to do — replace high-take-rate compounded GLP-1 revenue with lower-margin branded distribution — but the offsetting volume base is still being built. Layer on an international investment cycle that BofA expects to run at breakeven for multiple years, and the margin trough has more depth and duration than the original investor narrative carried.

The Bull Read

Not everyone is selling. A vocal cohort of longs is framing HIMS as the "Netflix of Healthcare" — a distribution layer that bolts on additional branded drug deals (Novo today, potentially Lilly next), scales the subscriber base, and lets the platform re-rate once the GLP-1 transition is digested. Management reiterated $2.70 to $2.90 billion of 2026 revenue and a path to 100,000 monthly weight-loss subscriber adds, with the pending Eucalyptus acquisition layering in international revenue. The trade depends on believing this is the margin trough to fade rather than the opening leg of a multi-quarter compression. Today's tape, with three brokers cutting targets in the same session, says fewer participants believe that today than did yesterday.

What to Watch

The technical setup is ugly. Friday's $31.24 squeeze high is now 20% above spot, the pre-earnings base around $27 has flipped to resistance, and the 24h perp tape printed $32.2 million of volume into the down move — real distribution rather than thin-book drift. The next datapoint is whether the rest of the sell side (Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Citi) follows JPM, BofA and Jefferies in marking estimates and targets lower. Beyond that, watch the Eucalyptus close, Q2 weight-loss subscriber adds, and any signal on whether the Lilly leg of the branded-distribution thesis is actually coming. Until margins stabilize, every sub-add and revenue print will be read as confirmation or refutation of the bull's transition-trough framing.