HIMS Rips 18% Into Q1 Earnings as the GLP-1 Squeeze Stacks Another Leg

The Stack Going Into Monday's Print

HIMS is up 18% over 24 hours to $31.24, less than two trading sessions from Q1 2026 earnings scheduled for Monday May 11 after market close. The print is the binary event the entire spring rally has been positioning for. Street consensus sits at $616.85M revenue and an EPS range that runs as wide as $0.03 to $0.13 depending on the desk — a setup the options market is reading as binary, with the implied straddle pricing roughly a 15% post-earnings swing. What makes Monday genuinely explosive is the ~34% short interest still sitting under it. A clean number with subscriber growth confirmed clears bears in size; a miss does the opposite cleanly.

Why Bears Couldn't Cover

The April squeeze that broke HIMS through its 200-week moving average was supposed to fade. Instead it stacked. On April 16, RFK Jr. and HHS pulled 12 wellness peptides out of Category 2 restrictions, opening a regulatory pathway directly into the California peptide facility Hims acquired in February 2025. A week later, JPMorgan initiated coverage at Overweight with a $35 price target, specifically calling out the Novo Nordisk distribution deal — branded Wegovy and Ozempic now sold through the Hims platform, with the patent suit dropped — as the turning point for the GLP-1 thesis. The company also has a $250M buyback authorization live and a subscriber base over 2.5 million heading into the print. Every leg of the bear case from Q4 has been answered before earnings even hit the tape.

What Has to Print Monday

The single number that matters is subscribers holding above 2.5M. That's the threshold the company hit at the end of 2025 — a roughly 16% jump from 2.2M a year earlier — and the floor the long thesis assumes held through the Novo Nordisk transition. EPS will look optically ugly against the $0.20 prior-year comp because branded GLP-1 carries lower gross margin than compounded did, but that compression is already in the model; the buy side is paying for the unit economics of the platform, not Q1 GAAP. Watch revenue against the $616.85M consensus, subscriber net adds, and any forward color on the peptide product roadmap into the July PCAC meetings. A clean print plus 2026 guidance that doesn't cut clears the squeeze fully — and at $31.24 going in, perp positioning is already telling you what direction it's leaning.