How to Trade Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) on Hyperliquid

What Is Eli Lilly

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is an Indianapolis-based pharmaceutical giant founded in 1876. The company develops and manufactures treatments across diabetes, obesity, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. But the story that matters right now is GLP-1 receptor agonists — the class of drugs reshaping how the world treats obesity and type 2 diabetes.

Lilly's two flagship GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro (tirzepatide for diabetes) and Zepbound (tirzepatide for obesity), generated $22.97 billion and $13.54 billion respectively in full-year 2025 — a combined $36.5 billion that accounted for 56% of total company revenue. That made tirzepatide the world's best-selling drug. Full-year 2025 revenue hit $65.2 billion, up 45% year-over-year, and Q4 alone delivered $19.3 billion with Mounjaro growing 110% and Zepbound growing 123%.

The company has guided for $80 to $83 billion in 2026 revenue, representing roughly 25% growth at the midpoint — a staggering figure for a company already this large. Non-GAAP EPS guidance sits at $33.50 to $35.00.

Why LLY Matters Right Now

Three catalysts make Lilly one of the most closely watched stocks in the market heading into mid-2026.

Orforglipron — the obesity pill. Lilly is on track to launch an oral GLP-1 drug called orforglipron pending FDA approval expected in Q2 2026. The company has already built a $1.5 billion stockpile ahead of the decision. Phase 3 ATTAIN-1 results showed 12.4% average weight loss (27.3 lbs) at the highest dose, and the FDA granted Lilly a national priority review voucher that could accelerate evaluation. An oral option would dramatically expand the addressable market beyond patients willing to self-inject.

Retatrutide — the next generation. Lilly's triple-hormone-receptor agonist (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) delivered up to 28.7% weight loss in Phase 3 and recently cleared its first late-stage diabetes trial with A1C reductions of 1.7% to 2.0%. Seven more Phase 3 readouts are expected in 2026. If the safety profile holds — a dysesthesia signal at higher doses is being watched — retatrutide could become the most potent weight-loss drug ever approved.

Medicare coverage. Starting April 2026, Medicare will broadly cover obesity medications, opening the door to millions of new patients. The timing aligns with the expected orforglipron launch, giving Lilly a potential oral option right as government-funded demand scales up.

Key Trading Considerations

LLY is a high-conviction, high-volatility pharma trade. The stock is down roughly 14% year-to-date as of mid-March 2026, creating a dynamic where bullish and bearish narratives are actively competing.

The bull case rests on execution. Analysts at UBS maintain a Buy rating with a $1,250 price target, while RBC holds Outperform. The argument: Lilly's obesity franchise is still early in its penetration curve, orforglipron could unlock a massive oral market, and the pipeline behind it (retatrutide, plus combinations for psoriatic arthritis and other indications) is the deepest in the industry.

The bear case was crystallized by HSBC's downgrade to Reduce with an $850 price target on March 17, which sent shares down nearly 6% in a single session. HSBC argues the total addressable market for obesity drugs may be $80 to $120 billion rather than the $150 billion-plus that bulls project. They flag pricing pressure from increased rebates, competition from compounded versions of tirzepatide, and the risk that oral drug forecasts are overly optimistic.

Lilly has also acknowledged low- to mid-teens percentage global pricing declines in 2026 from its government deal, direct-to-consumer Zepbound pricing, and lower Medicaid rates. Volume growth needs to more than offset these headwinds.

For perp traders, the key binary events to watch are the FDA orforglipron decision (Q2 2026), quarterly earnings prints, and any retatrutide safety data. Each of these can move the stock 5-10% in a session.

The HIP-3 Perpetual

The LLY perpetual on Hyperliquid tracks the value of one share of Eli Lilly common stock via a HIP-3 contract deployed by the xyz deployer. HIP-3 perps use an oracle-based pricing mechanism that references the underlying equity price, meaning the contract settles continuously against the real-world stock price rather than relying on an order-book spot market.

This structure lets traders take leveraged long or short positions on LLY without a brokerage account, equity settlement cycles, or market-hours restrictions. The perp trades 24/7 — relevant for a stock that frequently gaps on after-hours earnings releases and pre-market analyst notes.

With LLY currently priced around $1,066 per contract and available at up to 10x leverage, the position sizing math matters. A 5% move on a single LLY share is roughly $53 — at 10x, that translates to a $530 gain or loss per contract. Given that LLY routinely moves 5-6% on catalyst days (the HSBC downgrade alone triggered a near-6% drop), traders should size positions with these magnitudes in mind and use appropriate risk management.

Trading on Hyperliquid

Trade LLY on Hyperliquid with up to 10x leverage.