MU Cools 5.66% on the Perp After Record Close With RSI Pinned Near 85

The Setup Into the Fade

This is what an overbought tape looks like when the close prints a record. MU finished the regular session up 6.5% at $795.33, capping a 37.7% week that was Micron's best on record, with the 14-day RSI parked at roughly 83.78 and Schaeffer's flagging the equivalent weekly reading at 85, deep in textbook overbought territory.

Options positioning had already started leaning the other way. Schaeffer's notes MU's put/call open interest ratio at 1.27, the 87th percentile of annual readings — short-dated books loaded for a pullback into the move, not chasing it. By the time the perp tape rolled into the post-close window, every condition was in place for a thin-book unwind: a vertical line on the daily chart, an RSI you can't print without a digit-and-a-half handle, and a put skew bid on the way up.

Who Was Selling

The names matter here. On the May 11 CNBC Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said he was trimming his Micron position — the same Steve Weiss who publicly added to the trade as recently as April 1. When the loudest fast-money long on TV books gains on a parabolic day, perp desks pay attention.

The insider tape is louder. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold 40,000 shares on May 1 at $536.26 for $21.45M, and aggregate insider sales hit roughly $52.4M over the prior three months. At a $795 close, that May 1 trim looks early by 48% — which is exactly the kind of math that pulls more inside paper toward the offer.

Why the Perp Moved More Than the Stock

The cash tape barely flinched — Yahoo's after-hours print on MU was down about 0.30% at $792.96 — but the Hyperliquid HIP-3 perp gave back 5.66% to $767.70 on $140.59M of 24h volume. That gap is the whole story. Equity after-hours has thin volume and wide quotes; a 10x leveraged perp on the same name with funding running long sees forced unwinds magnify a routine cash-side fade.

The fundamental tape is still constructive — Deutsche Bank doubled its Micron target to $1,000 from $550 on May 11, and Samsung's union remained in last-ditch mediation Monday ahead of a May 21 strike threat that Jefferies estimates could pull ~3% of global memory supply offline. Neither story broke overnight. What broke was the slope of the move.

What to Watch

The two prices that matter near term are the May 11 cash close at $795.33 and Friday's prior close at $746.81. A perp recovery back above the cash close re-arms the squeeze; failure to reclaim it on the U.S. open opens the gap fill back toward the $746 area where Friday's 15.5% breakaway started.

The binary catalyst is still Samsung. The May 21 walkout would run through June 7 if mediation fails. A deal kills the supply scare without touching the DB revision; a strike puts incremental DRAM/HBM volume in Micron's hands at contract prices already up 90-95% in Q1. The overbought condition resolves itself one way or the other inside ten trading days.