Silver Grinds Through $72 Resistance After Fourth Hold of the 2026 Floor

Fourth Test, Fourth Hold

Silver's $70 floor has become the most consequential level in the metal's 2026 range. After Trump's Wednesday night address vowing "extremely hard" strikes on Iran for two to three more weeks, silver dumped from $75 to $70 in a straight line — the same zone that caught the January correction, the February retest, and the March selloff. Each time, buyers have stepped in.

The initial bounce was catalyzed by reports that Iran and Oman were drafting a Strait of Hormuz safe passage protocol, which pulled Brent crude back from its $110 spike and gave silver room to recover. But that bounce stalled near $71.80 — the 50-EMA and the level that FX Leaders flagged as the line between bearish and neutral bias. The move through $72 in the last 17 hours is the more meaningful development: it suggests the bid is structural, not just a dead-cat bounce off a round number.

NFP Into Empty Books

The timing matters. April's NFP report lands on April 3 with most global equity and commodity markets shut for Easter. Consensus expects a +50K print after February's dismal -92K, with the unemployment rate forecast to tick down from 4.5% to 4.4%. Even a consensus-matching number would be weak enough to keep rate cut pricing intact — and any miss below +50K would push the dollar lower, which is directly supportive for silver.

Thin holiday books amplify directional moves, and the combination of a confirmed technical floor at $70, a cleared resistance at $72, and a potential dollar-negative catalyst is the kind of setup that draws momentum. The risk is a hot NFP surprise that reverses the move — but with 70% of the market already pricing rates steady and virtually zero probability of a hike, the bar for a hawkish shock is high.

Where Silver Sits in the Bigger Picture

Context matters for the $70-$73 range: silver peaked near $120 in January 2026 and has corrected 44% from that high. The drawdown brought it from parabolic territory back to a zone that better reflects fundamentals — but those fundamentals remain bullish underneath the volatility.

The Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026, with industrial demand from solar, EVs, and AI infrastructure continuing to outstrip mine supply. COMEX and LBMA inventories tightened through 2025 and haven't rebuilt. Shanghai physical premiums have remained elevated at 12-13% above COMEX through the entire correction, suggesting the industrial bid underneath this market hasn't wavered.

The next resistance level is $74, which aligns with technical confluence on the daily chart. If the NFP print cooperates, that level comes into range quickly in these thin conditions. If it doesn't, $70 has proven it can hold.

Trading on Hyperliquid

Trade SILVER on Hyperliquid with up to 25x leverage.