SPCX Bounces to $209.90 as the $60B Cursor Deal Stays the Whole Story

A Bounce, Not a Catalyst

$SPCX is changing hands at $209.90, up 6.05% over the last 24 hours, but there is no clean headline behind today's print. This is the latest leg in a week of two-way post-IPO price discovery: the stock tagged a $225.64 record earlier in the week, faded back toward $205 on profit-taking, and is now recovering with nothing fresh driving it.

That chop is exactly what you'd expect from a name that only started trading on June 12. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 — the largest in history — and closed its first day near $161, a 19% pop, before running well above the offer into this week's fade. With a limited public float and the biggest IPO ever still settling into hands, moves of this size say more about positioning than about any change in the underlying story. The HIP-3 perp has done over $1.1 billion in 24-hour volume, so traders are leaning hard into the volatility rather than waiting for news.

The Cursor Deal Is Still the Whole Trade

The fundamental story hasn't moved off Tuesday's news: SpaceX confirmed a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the company behind the AI coding tool Cursor. This wasn't opportunistic — SpaceX secured an option in April giving it the right to either put in roughly $10 billion for a partnership or buy the company outright for $60 billion later in the year. It chose the full buy.

The logic is vertical integration: xAI, which SpaceX absorbed in February, gets a direct foothold in AI coding, one of the few corners where AI is already throwing off real enterprise revenue. Cursor is running near $2.6 billion in annualized revenue, so this isn't a science project — but $60 billion against $2.6 billion of revenue is roughly 23x sales, paid entirely in SpaceX's own richly valued stock. Because the consideration is all equity and the deal doesn't close until Q3 pending regulatory approval, the real cost is dilution — and that dilution scales with wherever SPCX trades into the close, which is what makes the daily tape something the deal participants actually care about.

The Valuation Math Hasn't Gotten Friendlier

The bounce doesn't touch the core problem, which is price. Morningstar cut its fair value on SPCX to $62 a share — down from $63 — specifically citing the Cursor deal, leaving the stock at roughly 3.2x what the firm thinks it's worth. On a sales basis the gap is starker: about 141x 2025 sales and nearly 78x projected 2026 sales, multiples Morningstar puts at more than 3x Broadcom's and 26x Amazon's.

The firm is blunt that this isn't a bear take — "our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism" — and even the $62 figure already assumes SpaceX cracks rapidly reusable Starship and commercializes orbital AI data centers, neither of which it expects solved before 2028. A lot of optionality is already in the price. So a 6% bounce changes the entry, not the setup: this is a stock where the tape is being set by post-IPO flows and deal mechanics, not by anything that resolves the valuation question.