SPCX: SpaceX Drops $60B on Cursor to Rescue Grok as Options Go Live

The Catalyst: SpaceX Spends Its New Currency on Cursor

Four days after the largest IPO in history, SpaceX made its first move as a public company — and it had nothing to do with rockets. On June 16 the company agreed to acquire Anysphere, the maker of the AI coding agent Cursor, in an all-stock deal valuing the startup at $60 billion — the largest acquisition of an AI developer-tools company on record. It is structured as a stock-for-stock merger into a wholly owned SpaceX subsidiary, with IPO proceeds explicitly not funding the deal and a close targeted for Q3.

This was not an impulse buy. SpaceX had secured an option back in April to buy Cursor for $60 billion by year-end or pay a $10 billion break fee, and it merged with Elon Musk's xAI in February. The logic is straightforward: Cursor crossed roughly $4 billion in annualized revenue, about $2.6 billion of it enterprise, and that real, growing software business is meant to shore up Grok — the weakest link in Musk's empire. Traders read the deal as confirmation that SpaceX will use its richly valued equity as M&A ammunition in the AI race, and bid the stock accordingly.

Why the Tape Whipsawed

The deal landed on the worst possible day for a clean move. Listed options on SPCX went live the same session, and with a tradable float of just 3-5% of the company, dealers were positioned to amplify flow rather than absorb it. SpotGamma had already flagged the setup as one of the highest gamma-sensitivity environments of the decade, with an estimated $22-27 billion in forced mechanical buying from Nasdaq-100 and Russell trackers still queued over the coming weeks.

The result was a round-trip. Roughly 600,000 contracts changed hands as the gamma bid pushed SPCX to tag about $227 intraday — the single highest target on the street — before the stock reversed all the way back toward $204. The net +6.86% over 24 hours is real, but it papers over a session that swung from roughly $195 to $225 and back. On a book this thin, the hedging flow is the move.

The Valuation Argument

Here is the tension every SPCX long has to sit with. The stock trades around $203.90, but the average 12-month analyst target is $164 — spot is already well above where the sell-side thinks it belongs. The range is enormous: the high target is $227, while Morningstar's probability-weighted fair value sits near $63, contingent on Starship reusability and commercial orbital data centers both landing before 2028.

The bear case has a loud voice. Jim Chanos pegs SpaceX at roughly 110x revenue, notes that "you just never really make much money buying equities at over 100x revenues," and compares the frenzy to the Enron-era IPO boom — while conceding that Starlink is "a real business." The Cursor deal cuts both ways: it adds billions in real software revenue to the story, but it also signals SpaceX will keep issuing stock at these multiples to buy growth. For now, low float and index-inclusion mechanics are setting the price more than any cash-flow model. Context: this perp has cleared about $1.72 billion in 24h volume on Hyperliquid alone, so the leverage is finding the name.