SPCX Unwinds to $190 as the $60B Cursor Deal Sharpens the Bear Case

The Deal That Printed the Top

SPCX closed its June 12 debut at $161, a 19% pop over the $135 offer price, then ran to an intraday record of $225.64 on Tuesday. The number that capped the run wasn't a launch milestone — it was an acquisition. On June 16, SpaceX said it would buy AI coding startup Cursor (Anysphere) for $60 billion in an all-stock deal, with closing expected in Q3. The transaction stems from an option SpaceX took in April and feeds the AI division it built after folding Elon Musk's xAI into the company earlier this year. The strategic logic is real — Cursor was on track to raise near a ~$50 billion valuation and gives SpaceX a frontier coding product to point at Anthropic and OpenAI. But paying $60 billion in freshly minted, richly priced stock days after listing is exactly the kind of move that makes a newly public market stop and re-price the equity it's being paid in.

Morningstar's Math vs. the Tape

Morningstar trimmed its fair value estimate to $62 right after the Cursor deal, which at $190.20 leaves SPCX trading north of three times what the firm thinks the business is worth — among the most expensive names in its entire coverage universe. Morningstar has been blunt about the gap since before the IPO: even its bull scenarios lean on a rapidly reusable Starship and commercial data centers in space, neither of which it expects solved before 2028. Its base case pegs SpaceX at less than half the $1.75 trillion IPO target. Former Nasdaq chief Robert Greifeld put it more plainly this week, saying the stock is trading "not on fundamentals" but on aspiration. When the most-cited bear case and a former exchange CEO are pointing at the same valuation gap, the Cursor deal just gave them a cleaner number to anchor to.

A 4% Float, Both Ways

None of this is fundamental news — there's no earnings miss, no failed launch, no subscriber data. What's moving the tape is structure. Only about 4% of shares are floating, with the rest locked up until December under the standard 180-day restriction. A float that thin amplifies everything: it's what let SPCX nearly triple off the offer price in four sessions, and it's what turns ordinary profit-taking into an 11.94% drawdown in a day. The next genuine fundamental checkpoint is the September 2 earnings release; until then, price is mostly a function of how much sentiment will pay for a 4% slice. For perps traders, that means moves of this size in either direction are the base case, not the exception — and the December lockup is the date that finally changes the supply math.