SPCX Fades Its Bond-Relief Bounce as Susquehanna Says Wait

The Give-Back

There's no discrete headline behind this leg lower. SPCX is down 4.65% over the past 19 hours to $155.20, unwinding most of the bounce that followed Tuesday's $25 billion bond sale. Less than a day ago the stock was grinding back above $157 on relief that the debt deal had cleared; now it's fading that move on no fresh news. That's the tell — this is the post-IPO correction reasserting itself, not a reaction to anything new out of SpaceX. The stock sits about 31% below the $225.64 peak it printed on June 16, and it only just clawed back above the $147.11 low it set when it briefly broke under its $150 debut price for the first time since listing.

What the Bond Deal Fixed, and What It Didn't

The bounce SPCX is now giving back was real, and it had a real cause. SpaceX priced a $25 billion inaugural bond sale on Tuesday — upsized from $20 billion after orders neared $90 billion — across five tranches with coupons from 5.35% to 6.65% and maturities stretching to 2056. The proceeds repay a $20 billion bridge loan tied to its xAI debt and trim annual interest costs from roughly $1.8 billion to $1.5 billion. That demand, plus the investment-grade reception, debunked the 'SpaceX is short on cash' narrative that had been feeding the selloff. What it did not do is touch the valuation. At ~$155 the company is still carried near a $2 trillion market cap on a business where xAI alone posted a $6.4 billion operating loss on $3.2 billion of revenue last year. Solving the liquidity question doesn't make the multiple cheaper — it just removes one reason to panic.

Susquehanna Puts a Number on the Skepticism

Right as the relief bounce was peaking, Susquehanna initiated coverage at Neutral with a $170 price target, about 9% above current levels — and the framing mattered more than the number. Analyst Charles Minervino said the valuation 'requires premium multiples on very aggressive revenue and EBITDA growth assumptions' and told investors to wait for 'a better entry point,' even while modeling 56% annual revenue growth through 2030. That's not a bear call; it's a great-company-wrong-price call, and it lands exactly in the gap the bond deal left open. Retail is hearing it — Stocktwits sentiment on SPCX collapsed to a record-low 42/100, turning bearish as IPO euphoria drains out. The structure makes it worse: only about 4% of shares sit in the public float, which amplifies every move, and the first lockup tranches begin unwinding after Q2 earnings before the bulk releases on December 8. Until then, a thin float and a stretched multiple are the whole story.