SPCX Gives Back the Debut Pop, Fading to $159 as SpaceX's First Day Cools

The Debut Pop Comes Back Out

SPCX is down 12% over the past 14 hours to $159, and the move is the simplest one in the book: a first-day IPO pop coming back out. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share and raised roughly $75 billion — the largest listing in history — then opened at $150 and ran more than 25% to an intraday high of $176.52, briefly carrying the company above a $2 trillion market cap. At $159 the tape has handed back most of that premium.

There is no fresh company headline behind the fade. With the Nasdaq listing cross complete, the Hyperliquid perp no longer estimates a private mark — it tracks the live SpaceX tape, so this is ordinary first-day price discovery on a float where only a thin slice trades freely. The afternoon bid that briefly reclaimed the $173 area rolled over, and the perp is now sitting closer to where it opened the session than to where it peaked.

The Bear Case Sits at $63

The bull-bear gap on this name is enormous. Morningstar pegs SpaceX's fair value at $63 — less than half the current $159 print — arguing the valuation already bakes in years of flawless execution on Starlink and Starship before the numbers grow into the multiple. Their own caveat is that sustained institutional and retail demand can keep the price elevated for months regardless, on hype alone.

That is the tension a debut-day fade exposes. At the $176.52 high the market was valuing SpaceX north of $2 trillion, ahead of established names that carry a fraction of the execution risk. Every tick lower is the float testing how much of that the marginal buyer actually believes — and a 12% give-back on day one is the first answer.

The Sector Got Siphoned

The listing didn't just move SpaceX. The same event triggered a sector-wide unwind as investors recycled capital out of smaller pure-play peers to make room for the new mega-cap. Firefly Aerospace fell more than 18%, while Rocket Lab, Redwire and Intuitive Machines each dropped at least 10% on the day, with Virgin Galactic and AST SpaceMobile down even harder.

Bloomberg framed it as rival shares tumbling as investors raced toward Musk's IPO — a siphon effect after months of the entire group rallying on the SpaceX listing story. The read-through for SPCX itself: a chunk of today's demand was rotation, not new money, and rotation flows fade once the rebalancing is done.