SPCX Loses Its Post-Cursor Support as the $62 Fair-Value Gap Lingers

An Unwind, Not a New Catalyst

There is no fresh bad news behind this move. SPCX is simply giving back the spike it took on June 16, when SpaceX converted an earlier option into a binding $60 billion all-stock merger to acquire AI coding startup Cursor. The stock jumped roughly 17% to an all-time high of $225.64 on the deal, briefly pushing SpaceX's market value past $2.9 trillion and into the top five most valuable U.S. companies.

What's happening now is the other side of that trade. As one analysis of the pullback put it, "the buyers who got in during this five session rally are cashing out their shares, and the move was one that was not driven by any immediate fundamental catalyst." With only about 4% of shares floating until the December lockup expires — 180 days after the record June 12 IPO that raised ~$75 billion at $135.00 a share — every wave of profit-taking lands on a thin book. That cuts both ways, but right now it's working against the longs.

Why Morningstar Is the Bear's Anchor

The durable bear case isn't a news event — it's the arithmetic. After the Cursor deal, Morningstar trimmed its fair value to $62 and now flags SPCX as one of the most expensive names in its coverage, trading around 3.2x that estimate — an implied ~69% downside from spot. The firm framed it bluntly: "Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism. Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt."

The multiples are the tell. SPCX trades at roughly 141x 2025 sales and nearly 78x projected 2026 sales — over 3x Broadcom's multiple and 26x Amazon's. Even Morningstar's most optimistic scenario, which assumes a rapidly reusable Starship and commercialized orbital AI data centers, tops out at $154 and carries only a 7% probability. Former Nasdaq chief Robert Greifeld captured the disconnect, warning that SpaceX is trading "not on fundamentals" but on "the aspiration of what's possible with the human spirit going forward in time."

The Levels That Matter

On the chart, $199.30 means SPCX has lost the $205.96 trendline that had defined the post-Cursor structure, and it briefly printed below $190 before reclaiming the $199 handle — a reminder of how violently a 4% float can swing in both directions. The level bears are watching is the $197.70 stop region; holding under it keeps the door open to retesting the lows, while a reclaim of $205.96 would put the unwind on pause.

The bigger point is that there's no fundamental anchor until the first earnings release on September 2. Until then, price is a function of float mechanics and sentiment, not revenue or guidance. The next real test of supply is the December lockup expiration — that's when the 4% free float stops being the whole story, and it's the event that matters more than any single session's tape.