SPCX Perp Marks a 31% Premium Into SpaceX's Record Nasdaq Debut

The Book Came In Hot, and the Clock Ran Out

SpaceX locked its IPO at $135 a share on June 11, selling 555.6 million shares to raise about $75 billion at a roughly $1.75 trillion valuation — the largest IPO in history, easily clearing Saudi Aramco's ~$25 billion 2019 record. Underwriters hold a greenshoe for another 83.3 million shares, about $11 billion more.

The demand picture is what moved the perp. The book came in more than four times oversubscribed per Bloomberg, far hotter than the roughly 2x read a week earlier, against an unusually large ~30% slice carved out for retail. SPCX trades on Nasdaq today. That's the whole move: the perp ran from about $162 on June 10 to $176.70 as the final book firmed and traders front-ran the opening cross.

What $176.70 Is Really Pricing

The offer price is fixed, so the perp was never pricing the deal — it's pricing the first-day print on Nasdaq. At $176.70 it marks a ~31% premium to the $135 offer, up from the ~20% it carried two days ago, and implies roughly a $2.3 trillion valuation. That sits above the $2 trillion-plus first-day close prediction-market traders had been pricing.

The skeptical read: the perp's premium is well above where the grey-market secondary has changed hands ($129–$137). So $176.70 is a bet on a retail-driven opening pop, not the institutional secondary. Once real shares trade today this pre-IPO market converges to the tape — if the open prints below $176.70, the premium bleeds out fast.

The Flows Underneath

Two structural bids sit under the stock. MSCI flagged T+1 inclusion eligibility for June 13, which pulls index money in against a thin ~4% float — TradingKey pegs potential index-tracking demand at $35–50 billion, a lot of forced buying chasing very little supply. The other side: S&P 500 inclusion is not on the horizon, because the xAI division's GAAP operating loss blocks the four-consecutive-quarters profitability test, so the passive bid is MSCI-only for now.

Net, the float-versus-demand math is the bull case the perp's premium is leaning on. The bear case is the standard one: IPO holders taking profit, which historically lands in weeks two through four once the debut adrenaline fades.