SPCX Round-Trips Its Options-Debut Spike as Chanos Calls It 110x Revenue

The Spike That Couldn't Hold

SPCX is changing hands around $205.40, down 5.46% over the past 23 hours and now sitting roughly where it traded before Tuesday's options frenzy began. The catalyst for the round trip is mechanical, not fundamental. Cboe listed SpaceX options on Tuesday, and the response was violent: 115,000 contracts traded in the first ten minutes and 500,000 in the first hour. With the tradable float worth only 3-5% of the company's valuation, dealers who sold those calls had to buy stock to hedge — the classic short-gamma feedback loop that briefly tagged ~$225 and pushed SpaceX's market cap past Amazon's. That bid works in both directions. As the call buying cooled, the same hedging flow reversed, and the spike is now bleeding back out.

Chanos Puts a Number on the Skepticism

The fade isn't happening in a vacuum. Short-seller Jim Chanos used the options debut to reiterate that SPCX trades near 110 times revenue, adding that history shows "you just never really make much money buying equities at over 100x revenues." The fundamentals give the bears something to point at: SpaceX posted a $4.28 billion net loss in Q1 2026 even as the market cap cleared $2.5 trillion after the IPO. The stock is still up more than 40% from its $135 IPO price — it closed its first session at $161 — so this is profit-taking on an extended move, not a fundamental break. But the louder the valuation debate gets, the harder it is for the gamma bid to find a second wind.

Into Thursday's Witching

The next structural event lands fast. Thursday brings quadruple witching — pulled forward from Friday because the Juneteenth holiday closes U.S. markets — when index futures and options expire together and dealer hedging books get rebalanced en masse. Layered on top, an estimated $22-27 billion of mechanical index-tracker buying is still queued as Nasdaq-100 and Russell funds add the new listing. That's a real bid waiting in the wings, but it's passive and scheduled, not the reflexive call-chasing that drove the spike. The setup into Thursday is a tug-of-war: passive inclusion demand against an unwinding gamma position and an increasingly vocal valuation short.