SPCX Passes Amazon's Market Cap on a 4.9% Float

Past Amazon in Four Sessions

SPCX is up 19.18% over the past 24 hours to about $205.80, with the stock printing above $212 in premarket before settling back. That is roughly +57% from the $135 IPO price in four trading days. SpaceX opened on the Nasdaq June 12 and closed its debut session near $161, up about 19%, already the largest IPO in history at a $1.77 trillion valuation.

Tuesday's leg higher did something specific: it vaulted SpaceX past Amazon's roughly $2.66 trillion market cap and put it on the doorstep of Microsoft, pushing its own value toward $2.75 trillion. The company has added something like $750 billion in market cap since the debut — more than most of the companies it is now passing are worth in total. That is a top-five US company built in four sessions.

Options Live, Index Money Still Waiting

The fresh catalyst today is derivatives: Cboe launched SPCX options contracts on Tuesday, giving traders the first real way to express leverage and hedges on the name. On a stock this reflexive, an options market can amplify moves in both directions through dealer hedging far more than the underlying float would suggest.

The bigger mechanical bid is still ahead. FTSE Russell inclusion is effective June 26, with MSCI and the Nasdaq-100 expected to follow. A revised Nasdaq methodology effective May 1 lets a top-40 newcomer enter the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, with the old free-float requirement dropped, and FTSE compressed its own window to days. The estimated $22–27 billion of forced passive buying is a known event on a known calendar — and none of it has hit the tape yet. The run to $2.75 trillion happened before the structural buyers even showed up.

A 4.9% Float Doing All the Work

The reason a few sessions can move a multi-trillion-dollar valuation is supply. The IPO floated about 4.2% of shares, rising to roughly 4.9% after the greenshoe — the rest is locked. Instead of a standard 180-day cliff, SpaceX built a tiered, rolling lockup: insiders can sell up to 20% only after the first earnings report following Q2, with an extra 10% unlocked if the stock holds 30% above the IPO price for five of the ten sessions into that report.

That structure means a sliver of stock is setting the price for the whole company, and retail buyers were left with too few shares to matter. When index funds eventually have to source ~30% of the free float in a narrow window, they are bidding against almost nothing. That is the entire setup: enormous mechanical demand pointed at a near-zero supply.

What the Tape Isn't Pricing

Worth keeping honest about what this is not. The S&P 500 has so far refused early entry, citing SpaceX's projected ~$4.94 billion net loss in 2025 — the profitability screen the company does not yet clear. Analyst price targets tell the same story from the other side: the average sits around $164 with a low end near $63, well below where the stock trades now.

None of that is a short thesis on its own — flow squeezes can run far past fair value and stay there as long as supply is locked. But it frames the risk. The same float that is forcing the price up reverses hard once lockups roll off, the greenshoe settles, and post-earnings supply arrives. The current $2.75 trillion print is a function of scarcity and forced demand, not a market verdict that SpaceX is worth more than Amazon.