SPCX Slides to $205.90 as Thin-Float Profit-Taking Cools the Post-IPO Run

The Fade Off the Top

SPCX peaked at an all-time high of $225.64 on Tuesday, the same session it confirmed a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor maker Anysphere. By the next session it had given back 4.64% to $205.90 — and there was nothing fresh to explain it. No earnings, no Starship update, no subscriber print. This is the fade off a five-session blow-off top that started at a $135 IPO price on June 12.

The mechanics matter more than any narrative. Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld put it bluntly: SPCX is trading "not on fundamentals" but on "the aspiration of what's possible." When a name runs roughly 67% above its IPO price in a week on sentiment alone, the first real wave of selling doesn't need a catalyst — it just needs early allocation holders deciding the run looks complete.

What the Stock Is Actually Worth

Strip out the story and the number that matters is fair value. Morningstar cut its estimate to $62 per share from $63 after the Cursor deal, which puts $205.90 at more than three times what its model says the business is worth. It pegs SPCX at roughly 141x 2025 sales and 78x projected 2026 sales — among the most expensive names in its entire coverage universe, with the firm noting its call is "the result of mathematics more than skepticism."

The Cursor deal sharpens that problem rather than solving it. Because the acquisition is all-stock and doesn't close until Q3, the dilution scales with wherever SPCX trades — about 3.4% of equity at the IPO valuation, more or less depending on the print. SpaceX is using its own richly-valued paper as currency, which works beautifully on the way up and gets harder to defend on the way down.

The Float Math and the Calendar

The float is the whole game right now. Only about 4% of SPCX shares trade freely; the other 96% sits under lockup. That scarcity is what let the stock more than triple off its $135 debut and largest-ever IPO on modest supply, and it's the same thing amplifying the current fade — thin books cut both ways.

The calendar is where the real supply lives. SpaceX used an unusual tiered lockup: the first earnings release, expected in early September, unlocks up to 20% of eligible insider shares, more tranches free up through the fall, and the full 180-day lock expires December 8. Musk's own 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027. Each of those dates is a potential step-change in tradeable supply against a price currently built on roughly 4% of the company.