SPCX Near $183 as a Record $85.7B Greenshoe Meets a 4% Float

The Greenshoe Completes the Record

SpaceX's underwriters — Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley among them — exercised the overallotment option in full, buying roughly 83.3 million additional shares and lifting total proceeds to $85.7 billion from the $75 billion raised by selling 555.6 million shares at $135. That makes this comfortably the largest IPO ever completed, with the deal now covering nearly 639 million shares. Underwriters only exercise the greenshoe when a stock trades above its offer price, so the move reads as a demand-confirmation signal — SpaceX closed its June 12 debut up 19% near $161 and has pushed toward $183 since. The wrinkle worth sitting with: the greenshoe adds ~83 million shares to the tradable supply, which is the one thing that has been keeping this stock pinned.

A 4% Float Against a Scheduled Bid

Even after the overallotment, only about 4% of SpaceX shares are publicly tradable — roughly $80–85 billion of stock in a company valued past $2 trillion. Into that thin float comes a dated wall of passive demand. FTSE Russell added SpaceX to the Russell 1000 and Top 200 effective after the close on June 26 under fast-entry rules adopted in May, and MSCI follows on June 29. Morningstar pegs total passive inflows across Nasdaq-100, FTSE Russell and MSCI at as much as $30 billion, with BNP Paribas estimating roughly $8 billion of Nasdaq-100-linked buying alone in the first month. When forced buyers need far more stock than exists in the float, price is the only release valve — and the greenshoe's extra 83 million shares barely dents that imbalance.

What Could Cap It

The bull case is also the risk: a 4% float cuts both ways. S&P Dow Jones declined to fast-track SpaceX into the S&P 500, citing unmet profitability and seasoning rules, which keeps the deepest pool of passive money on the sidelines until SpaceX posts GAAP profits. The WSJ has argued the index windfall may already be priced in, since front-runners have been buying ahead of the dated inclusions for a week. And a puny float that amplifies the move on the way up will amplify it just as hard on the way down once the index adds clear and the forced bid is filled. A Nasdaq-100 fast-track, eligible roughly 15 trading days after listing, is the next scheduled catalyst on the calendar.