SPCX Fades 7% Off Its Record With No Fresh News as Morningstar Pegs Fair Value at $62

No Fresh News, Just the Unwind

SPCX is down roughly 7% over 24 hours, and there's no catalyst to point at. This is the back half of the post-IPO blow-off top: the stock printed an all-time high of $225.64 on Tuesday alongside the $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor maker Anysphere, then started bleeding lower into Wednesday. The same mechanic that drove the parabola is driving the fade — a free float of only about 4%, with the other 96% locked up. Thin books cut both ways. The scarcity that let SPCX run nearly 50% above its $135 IPO price in a single week is now magnifying the give-back. Worth noting the tape is choppy rather than one-directional — shares were actually bid more than 4% higher in Wednesday premarket before the 24-hour window closed red.

The Valuation Bears Aren't Working From Vibes

Here's the structural overhang. Around $203, SPCX carries a market cap near $2.68 trillion — enough to leapfrog Amazon in market value this week. Morningstar pins fair value at $62 a share, which it trimmed from $63 after the Cursor deal pushed an already rich stock further into expensive territory — that's roughly 3.2x what its model says the business is worth, and it called the gap "the result of mathematics more than skepticism." CFRA's Keith Snyder opened with the first Wall Street Sell rating and a $115 target, arguing the market is pricing unproven outcomes — Starship commercialization, orbital AI compute, xAI monetization — as near-certainties. Four of five analysts are still Buy, so this isn't consensus. But the bear case is specific and numerical, and at this price it doesn't need to be right about much to matter.

The Float Is the Real Story Ahead

The ~4% float amplifying every tick is also a countdown. SPCX skipped the standard 180-day cliff in favor of a tiered, rolling lockup release. Time-based tranches free up insider shares at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO, with additional unlocks tied to the Q2 and Q3 earnings reports and an extra slug releasing if the stock holds at least 30% above its offer price. Translation: the supply that's been artificially absent is scheduled to arrive in waves over the coming months. For a name trading at a triple-digit-percent premium to fair value on a sliver of float, the lockup calendar — not any single news day — is the variable that decides how much of this run survives.