SPCX Hands Back Its IPO Run as Valuation Warnings Pile Onto a 4% Float

No News, Just the Float Unwinding

There's no headline behind this drop. No subscriber miss, no Starship anomaly, no guidance cut. SPCX simply debuted June 12 at a $135 IPO price, ran about 53% over five sessions to an intraday high of $225.64 on Monday, and is now giving it back. The mechanism is the float. With roughly 4% of shares actually trading, every wave of selling moves the print hard because there's no depth to absorb it — the same technical setup that fueled the melt-up is now amplifying the unwind. This is positioning mean-reverting, not a business breaking.

The Bears Finally Have Numbers

The run was never about fundamentals, and the people whose job is fundamentals are saying so out loud. Morningstar pegs fair value at $62 — roughly 69% below where SPCX trades — and pushed it deeper into 'most expensive' territory after the company's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding firm Cursor. Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld put it bluntly: the stock trades on "the aspiration of what's possible with the human spirit," not operating results. For scale, SpaceX did about $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025 while its market cap briefly drew level with Amazon's near $2.6 trillion. When the comps stop working, the only thing holding the price up is the float — and that cuts both ways.

What Actually Sets the Next Move

The leverage stacked on this thin float is the part to respect. Tuesday's options debut printed about 1.6 million contracts, more than four times the first-day record Facebook set in 2012 — so dealer hedging and gamma are now part of the tape, not just spot flow. Until September 2 earnings there's no fundamental catalyst to anchor any of it, and the December lockup expiration is the next real supply event. The honest read: expect 10%-plus days in both directions until something other than positioning shows up to set the price.