Wedbush's $190 Outperform Lands on SPCX Days Before Its Forced Index Bid

Wall Street Finally Shows Up

On June 30, Wedbush initiated SPCX at Outperform with a $190 price target, the first sell-side coverage the stock has drawn since its June 12 listing. The target is built on a sum-of-the-parts model pinned to FY2028 estimates, implying roughly $2.48 trillion of enterprise value and about 11% upside from where shares were trading. The bull case is Starlink: the note cites ~12 million subscribers at ~$66 ARPU, ~$19.3B in trailing revenue and nearly 49% gross margin. For tape-readers the timing matters more than the number. The first analyst to plant a flag did so at Outperform, days before a mechanical bid, handing momentum buyers a fundamental story they didn't have last week.

The Mechanical Bid Underneath

The bigger force is still structural. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, just 15 trading days after its IPO, the fastest inclusion in the index's history. J.P. Morgan estimates funds tracking the benchmark will have to buy about $4.3 billion of stock around the change. The squeeze is in the float: Nasdaq rules count only ~4.3% of shares (~$89B) as free-floating, then apply a 3x multiplier to lift the effective index weight to ~$267B, or 0.6% of the Nasdaq-100. A multibillion-dollar dated buy order landing on a book that thin is exactly the setup traders have been front-running since SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 and closed its first day up 19%.

What Cuts the Other Way

The bear case is that most of this is known and dated. The mechanical bid is spent once the rebalance clears on July 7, and the calendar behind it is heavy: first earnings on August 6 land alongside an insider lockup unlock, releasing supply into a stock that has already round-tripped from a $225.64 high to a $147.11 low in its first three weeks. Valuation is the other overhang. SPCX carries a ~$2.25T market cap while the company swung to a roughly $4.9B net loss in 2025 from a small 2024 profit, as it poured capital into AI compute, including a $920M-a-month Google contract for xAI capacity. The competitive map is shifting too: Rocket Lab's $8B move for Iridium is an explicit attempt to build a vertically integrated Starlink rival. None of that stops the July 7 bid, but it frames what happens after it.