Nasdaq-100 Snaps Four-Week Losing Streak After Trump Signals Iran War Exit

The Catalyst: Trump Blinks on Hormuz

The Wall Street Journal reported late Sunday that President Trump told aides he would end the Iran military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows — remains closed. On Monday he doubled down, writing on Truth Social that "Iran has been, essentially, decimated" and telling the New York Post the war "won't last much longer."

The White House confirmed the shift on Tuesday, with the press secretary stating that reopening safe passage for oil tankers is not among the "core objectives" for ending the operation. Markets read this as a clear de-escalation signal. The S&P 500 gained 2.3%, the Dow added 1.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.1% — its best day since late February.

This is a direct reversal from the tape just ten days ago, when Brent at $112 had zeroed out every 2026 rate cut bet and the Nasdaq-100 was grinding through its fourth straight losing week. The index is still in correction territory — down over 10% from its highs — but for the first time in weeks, the direction of travel on the war narrative shifted.

Mega-Caps Lead, Marvell Pops on Nvidia Deal

All seven mega-cap tech names closed green. Meta led at +5.4%, followed by Nvidia at +4.7%, Alphabet at +4.0%, and Amazon at +3.5%. Microsoft added 2.2%. Seventy-two of the 100 names in the Nasdaq-100 finished positive.

The standout single-stock move was Marvell Technology, which gained over 8% after Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment to accelerate AI infrastructure. The deal targets the custom ASIC market used by hyperscale cloud providers and positions Marvell's silicon photonics business for a meaningfully larger 2027 revenue outlook. In biotech, Apellis Pharmaceuticals more than doubled on a $5.6 billion Biogen acquisition, and Eli Lilly's $7.8 billion Centessa deal added to the broader risk-on tone.

Oil Still Above $100, Confidence Split

The relief rally came with a notable caveat: oil barely moved. WTI held around $104 and Brent near $108, both still well above pre-conflict levels. Brent is up roughly 55% in March alone — a record monthly gain for the contract. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, and Trump's exit signal explicitly leaves other countries to deal with reopening it. National gas prices crossed $4.02 per gallon, the highest since August 2022.

Separately, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 91.8 versus expectations of 87.9, giving bulls a second data point. But the forward-looking expectations component slipped to 70.9 — well below the 80 threshold that historically signals recession risk. Higher energy costs are clearly weighing on household outlook even as present conditions hold up.

What This Changes

The Nasdaq-100's correction is still intact. The index needs to recover another 7-8% just to exit correction territory, and the structural headwinds — oil above $100, 10-year yields elevated, rate cuts off the table — haven't changed. What changed today is the trajectory of the worst-case scenario. A week ago, markets were pricing an extended Hormuz operation that could push oil to $130+ and force the Fed to hike. Trump walking away from that objective removes the tail risk, even if it leaves a messy energy picture for Europe and Asia.

The VIX dropping to 27 from above 30 reflects that recalibration. It's still elevated — the long-term average is near 20 — but it's no longer screaming panic. For the XYZ100 perp on Hyperliquid, which has been tracking spot Nasdaq-100 closely, today's move puts price back near the $23,500-24,000 range that acted as support through most of early March before the war broke it. Whether this holds depends entirely on whether Trump's exit rhetoric translates into an actual ceasefire — and whether Europe can reopen Hormuz without U.S. military backing.

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